Despite Serious Headwinds, RBC Likes 3 Tech Stocks for 2016

All the tech indicators continue to look bad. Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) had what looked like solid numbers, but slumping personal computer (PC) sales continue to weigh on the stock. News of suppliers in China getting smaller orders is rampant. This is all coming at a time when the overall market temperature is horrible, and all the dyed-in-the-wool bears are clamoring for a huge meltdown. Can investors possible look at technology now?

In a new research report from RBC, the answer is yes. But that comes with the caveat that investors have to be willing to have a longer term view and look past the near-term volatility. The firm feels that during earnings seasons four areas will be watched closely:

1. iPhone units and gross margin expectations for the March quarter
2. PC demand and implications for the hard disk drive silo
3. Information technology (IT) spending trends for services, storage and servers
4. Expense controls that aid free cash flow and earnings

RBC has three solid picks for aggressive investors to consider, and again the focus needs to be looking through 2016, and not next week. All three are rated Outperform.

Apple

This remains the world’s biggest and boldest technology company, and its stock is down a stunning 28% from highs posted in the spring of 2015. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) evolutionized personal technology with the introduction of the Macintosh in 1984. Today, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and Apple TV. Apple’s four software platforms — iOS, OS X, watchOS and tvOS — provide seamless experiences across all Apple devices and empower people with breakthrough services, including the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay and iCloud.
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Apple has stayed in the limelight, as the Silicon Valley behemoth comes out with a ton of new product for the Apple nation to embrace. In what is becoming a new trend, many of the former bullish analysts on the stock somewhat yawned at some the new offerings back in the fall, saying that it was really “no big deal.”

The company recently announced that customers around the world made the 2015 holiday season the biggest ever for the Apple App Store, setting new records during the weeks of Christmas and New Year’s. In the two weeks ending January 3, customers spent over $1.1 billion on apps and in-app purchases, setting back-to-back weekly records for traffic and purchases. January 1, 2016 marked the biggest day in App Store history, with customers spending over $144 million. It broke the previous single-day record set just a week earlier on Christmas Day. So much for the “no big deal” thought perhaps.

RBC analysts note that many of the Apple suppliers did indeed pre-announce negative earnings, and they think there is indeed risk to the estimates for the March quarter. They remain comfortable with their estimates for 45 million iPhones and note that while the March quarter chatter could remain an issue, the long-term story remains in place and should work well through the balance of 2016 and beyond.

Apple investors receive a 2.14% dividend. The RBC price objective is $130, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is higher at $142.73. The shares closed most recently at $97.13.
CDW

CDW Corp. (NASDAQ: CDW) came back from private equity land with a highly anticipated initial public offering in 2013, and it had gone straight up in price for almost two years until a sell-off started last July. The company provides IT products and services to business, government, education and health care customers in the United States and Canada. It offers discrete hardware and software products to integrated IT solutions, such as mobility, security, data center optimization, cloud computing, virtualization and collaboration.

This company is one of the stocks that RBC has highlighted in the past as having virtually no exposure to China, and it is a very attractive and somewhat defensive small/midcap play for investors. While some of the China concerns may be overblown, the volatility and tumbling stock market there will keep the volatility high. The firm also thinks that the company has benefited from the integration of U.K. IT services and solutions provider Kelway.

The analysts cite the unique culture and the compensation structure, and the Dell Partnership as among the top reasons to own the stock now. They also expect CDW to report a solid quarter despite weaker PC sales and an overall weaker macro environment, as the company has negotiated weak PC sales periods in the past.

CDW investors receive a 1.16% dividend. RBC has a $43 target. The consensus target is higher at $50.18. Shares closed last Friday at $37.09.

Seagate Technology

This stock is down a stunning 55% from the highs posted early last year. Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) designs, manufactures and sells electronic data storage products in the Asia Pacific, the Americas, and elsewhere. It provides hard disk drives, solid state hybrid drives, solid state drives, PCIe cards and serial advanced technology architecture controllers that are designed for enterprise servers and storage systems in mission critical and nearline applications; for client compute applications comprising desktop and mobile computing.

Seagate recently has touted its new 10-terabyte helium-filled hard disk drive as being the least power-hungry and lightest in the 10 TB category. Targeted at data centers providing cloud services, Seagate already claims Huawei and Alibaba as customers, and it is looking to expand the business as some see the HDD application far more inexpensive.

RBC sees the current valuation of the stock as very attractive at present trading levels, and notes that multiple potential upside products and levers could drive earnings higher.

Investors receive a huge 8.16% dividend, which clearly could be in jeopardy of being cut. RBC lowered its price target $40 from $47. The consensus target is $40.67. Shares ended last week at $30.89.
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Needless to say, these are not stock picks for conservative accounts. That said, RBC has found top companies that are offering investors solid value at current trading levels. It would be prudent for investors looking to buy shares to slowly scale in capital, as the market could have another leg down.