Technology
Why Apple Analysts Are Getting More and More Cautious About Its Endless Upside
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) endured what many investors are considering its first dismal earnings and revenues report in a decade. It now seems that Apple has found itself without clear direction and without any great new product ideas to drive its growth and cash-printing machine. The world’s largest company by market capitalization issued muted guidance, which was even less than expected.
24/7 Wall St. covered Apple’s earnings report in depth, and it seems like a fundamental shift. Can Apple get away with selling itself as a value stock until its next big thing? Increasing dividends and buybacks might not mask negative growth. It turns out that many of Apple’s analysts have either lowered their ratings or have lowered their price targets and earnings estimates.
One concern that seems unanimous is that Apple’s Watch has not moved the needle at all. Many people who would want the product have turned to other products. Upgrading iPhones and iPads is now a trend that may also take longer than in years past, and the theme of no real product launches for years is becoming more of the norm.
Here is a large portion of the many analyst calls that were positive or negative about Apple since its earnings report.
Mohan was also concerned that lower average selling prices and margins are being seen. This is being driven by the product mix and lower volumes. Weaker guidance has pushed out the bottoming of gross profit dollar growth into the June quarter, which may be an inflection point — which is also why the Buy rating was maintained.
Another concern from Merrill Lynch is that development of new revenue sources like Apple Pay, Apple Watch, HomeKit, HealthKit and others will take time to mature.
Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster is considered to be one of the top Wall Street analysts in Apple. Munster maintained his Overweight rating, and he maintained his long-term bullish views. That being said, Munster took down his price target from one of the most bullish targets of $172 to $15,3 based on new sales and earnings assumptions — lower assumption, that is.
Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating, but Apple has now been stripped off of the prized Conviction Buy list. The bulge bracket firm lowered its price target to $136 from $155.
Oppenheimer cut its rating on Apple to Perform from Outperform, which also means that it withdrew any upside price targets. Oppenheimer’s Andrew Uerkwitz previously had a $120 price target but now thinks the stock is in a holding pattern. His report said:
We are downgrading Apple to Perform as we believe that weaker performance seen in this quarter is likely to recur until 2017’s iPhone launch. We believe Apple won’t provide a compelling reason to upgrade until then, when the new iPhone adopts more VR-friendly features. Such belief leads to our more bearish outlook for the coming iPhone cycle and has us look past favorable longer-term trends. We see the stock trading sideways while investors grapple with perceived slowing innovation and unit growth on the one hand, and massive cash generating, dividend paying, attractive valuation on the other. We believe once year-over-year growth returns, the stock will work again. We see this happening in the second half of 2017 thus we change our rating to Perform and remove our $120 price target.
Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um still sees growth, but he also gave the line that Apple’s thesis formerly known as growth is actually still coming. Um maintained his Outperform rating. He also said that his own analysis would suggest that now would be the time to get more bullish on Apple shares. Wells Fargo’s valuation range is $120 to $130. Um’s valuation and thesis combined said:
We believe the risk/reward at 8 times our free cash flow is tilted favorably with investor sentiment likely reflecting potential first half softness and our view that iPhone shipments have not peaked and would increase year over year in December 2016.
There were many other analysts who lowered their targets and ratings on Apple. S&P, Credit Suisse, Cowen, RBC and over a dozen more analysts trimmed Apple’s expectations.
S&P Capital IQ maintained its Strong Buy rating, and the ratings agency kept the $130 price target for 12 months out. The firm said:
With shares down sharply post the March-quarter results, we see Apple as a compelling risk/reward opportunity. We note near term headwinds including tough comparables, weak iPhone 6S replacement cycle, and decelerating smartphone space. However, we believe an iPhone 7 launch in late September will allow Apple to return to growth and see its net cash per share over $29 aiding valuation.
Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha reiterated his Outperform rating and kept his price target at $150, despite weaker than expected guidance. Garcha’s view is that the pullback brings opportunity as well. He lowered his June quarter revenue estimate to $41.9 billion and lowered its 2016 and 2017 earnings estimates to $8.18 and $9.64 per share, respectively. He said:
Given high retention, a superior ecosystem, and a multi-product compute advantage, we believe free cash flow of approximately $67 billion should be sustainable long term.
Shares of Apple closed at $104.35 ahead of earnings on Tuesday, and the pre-earnings consensus analyst target price was $133.87. Apple shares traded down 6.5% at $97.70 on massive volume after the news broke.
Apple closed on Friday at $93.74, with a market cap of just under $500 billion. That consensus target price did come down handily, down to $126.70 by the end of the week, and it may head lower yet as more analysts tweak their estimates. Apple’s 52-week trading range is $92.00 to $134.54.
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