Technology

Merrill Lynch Says Take Advantage of Any Semiconductor Weakness Now

Lee Jackson

Published: June 22, 2018 9:59 am

Last Updated: January 11, 2020 10:02 pm

Even though the semiconductor industry has been red-hot over the past three years, 2018 has been a different story. We have seen the market seesawe this year, and some investors have been inclined to take the big gains they have. There also have been some ancillary issues in the sector that have hit pricing, but that may be offering investors a chance to hop in now.

Between the forced and surprising resignation of Intel’s CEO and the worries of some firms across Wall Street that crypto-mining will slow dramatically, some of the best stocks have backed up recently, and a new report from Merrill Lynch says now may be the time to add shares, especially with a very positive Intel pre-announcement on Thursday.

The following four top stocks look to benefit from the dislocation, and all are rated Buy at Merrill Lynch.

AMD

After years of frustrating performance, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) appears to have turned the corner and is a hot commodity on Wall Street. AMD is one of the largest suppliers of PC microprocessors and graphics processors worldwide to computing original equipment manufacturers. The company’s main product lines include desktop, notebook and graphics processors, and embedded/semi-custom chips.

Last year the company released its first major offering in five years, the Ryzen chipset, which many feel is uniquely positioned to compete with the big players like Intel and Nvidia in the $50 billion total addressable market for personal computers, gaming, artificial intelligence and servers.

A recent report noted this:

We highlight the company’s drastic product mix shift in first quarter which we believe could be the start of a sustained mix shift to more premium products. Per Mercury research, a record 44% of AMD’s desktop dGPU shipments in Q1 were in graphics cards with a $300 or higher ASP. We suspect this largely captures a steep pick up in Vega GPU shipments since most of the company’s Polaris/earlier products are built into graphics cards that carry an ASP of less than $300. In the fourth quarter of 2017, shipments of $300+ graphics cards accounted for just 15% of overall AMD desktop units which implies sharp (200%+) quarter over quarter growth.

The Merrill Lynch price target for the shares is $17, and the Wall Street consensus price objective is $14.75. The shares traded early Friday at $15.75.

Intel

This semiconductor leader is working hard to focus more on Internet of Things and data center cloud spending and away from PCs. Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) designs, manufactures and sells integrated digital technology platforms worldwide.

The company’s platforms are used in various computing applications, comprising notebooks, two-in-one systems, desktops, servers, tablets, smartphones, wireless and wired connectivity products, wearables, retail devices and manufacturing devices, as well as for retail, transportation, industrial, buildings, home use and other market segments.

Intel announced the surprise resignation of the company’s chief executive officer on Thursday morning while also pre-announcing second-quarter results, which came in above analysts’ expectations. Despite the good results, the startling resignation hit the stock, and the Merrill Lynch feels that investors should take advantage of the selling.

Intel investors receive a 2.3% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a strong $70 price target, and the consensus price objective is $59.13. The shares were down 10% in two weeks and last seen trading at $52.70.

Micron Technology

This is a global leader in advanced semiconductor systems. Micron Technology Inc.’s (NASDAQ: MU) broad portfolio of high-performance memory technologies, including DRAM, NAND and NOR flash, is the basis for solid state drives, modules, multichip packages and other system solutions. Its memory chip solutions enable the world’s most innovative computing, consumer, enterprise storage, networking, mobile, embedded and automotive applications.

Micron and Intel announced last year the availability of their 3D NAND technology, the world’s highest-density flash memory. Flash is the storage technology used inside the lightest laptops, fastest data centers and nearly every cell phone, tablet and mobile device.

The company posted outstanding quarterly earnings recently and also provided forward guidance that exceeded Wall Street estimates. With memory demand drivers remaining somewhat underappreciated and with solid demand from end-markets such as data center, artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning, big data, mobile and autonomous driving, Micron continues to execute well on its manufacturing roadmap. The analysts expect the company to drive gross and operating margins higher in 2018, even if prices return to a more typical deflationary environment.

The new $100 Merrill Lynch price target compares with the consensus target of $77.72. Shares were changing hands at $59.60 Friday morning.

Nvidia

This stock was recently added to the Merrill Lynch US 1 list of top stocks to Buy and is the firm’s top pick in the chip arena. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) is one of the leaders when it comes to supplying graphics processing technology for the 3D graphics market, including desktop graphics processors and gaming consoles.

Nvidia is also moving into visual computing chips for cars, mobile devices and supercomputers. It has been able to use its ability to leverage past investments, with a more controlled spending structure ahead on unified, which enables strong cash flow that is allowing a focus on capital return, which is currently estimated to be $1 billion next year.

Merrill Lynch has been bullish on the company for some time and noted this when adding the stock to its US 1 list:

Adding NVIDIA to US1 list, the recent selloff has enhanced buying opportunity for unique tech franchise with multiple 10 times growth drivers. The stock is sensitive to risk-off in high-growth stocks, but new second half products in gaming, Artificial intelligence/data center can catalyze recovery. Overstated noise from crypto mining (offset by gaming strength) and autonomous car testing (immaterial for 2 years).

The team also made these observations in the new report on gaming’s huge potential for the company:

NVIDIA remains our top pick given its relative leadership (79%/75% revenue/unit share). The next catalyst in gaming could be Computex/E3 trade shows in June where the company could launch new gaming cards (Volta/Turing GTX 11xx series). The first products based on Nvidia’s latest GPU architecture (Pascal GPU) were first launched in June 2016 and a steady stream of products – both at the high and low-end of the price/performance spectrum – have been launched since. In aggregate, these products have tended to carry 20-40% higher launch average selling prices versus NVIDIA’s last-generation (Maxwell) cards.

The Merrill Lynch price target is a whopping $340. The consensus target is $279.70, and shares were trading at $256.75.

The market is nervous over the trade issues, the semiconductor sector is getting its cage rattled some by headline events, and bearish analysts at some major firms are not helping. But if the Intel pre-announcement is any signal, there should be solid results from these top companies, all of which are offering better entry points.