Munster: iPhone lines 50% shorter than last year, as expected

Nobody has counted as many Apple heads as Gene Munster—first for Piper Jaffray, now for himself at Loup Ventures.

From a note to subscribers posted Friday:

This year’s iPhone Xs/Xs Max launch line at Apple’s flagship 5th Avenue store in New York was 406 people vs last year’s two separate launches which saw 821 for the iPhone X and 293 for the iPhone 8. Overall, this line count is in line with our expectations for two reasons:

• Consumers are increasingly pre-ordering devices online to avoid long lines on launch day.
• We expect iPhone Xr, which debuts on October 23, to account for 38% of iPhones sold in the next year, compared to 21% for the Xs and Xs Max combined (9% Xs, 12% Xs Max).

Below: A dozen years of Gene Munster headcounts.

Click to enlarge.

My take: Lipstick on a pig, as far as the Street is concerned. The stock continued its post-tariff slide, now in its third week. See Apple vs. Dow, below.

See also: Launch day lines for the iPhones Xs (videos) (with commentary from Fifth Avenue by BTIG’s Walter Piecyk).