UBS: Apple and Huawei paid Qualcomm $6.4 billion in royalties in arrears

Analyst Timothy Arcuri estimates the terms of Tuesday’s settlement.

From a note to clients that landed in my desktop Wednesday:

While very limited terms were disclosed, QCOM’s indication of ~$2/share in incremental EPS… suggests to us that AAPL settled for something in the range of $8-$9/phone royalty rate—a solid outcome for QCOM and certainly better than the ~$5 assumption we had been making.

This additionally does not include what seems to be a likely resumption of full royalty payments from Huawei as well as bullet payments from both AAPL (~$5-$6B) and Huawei (~$1.5B) for royalties in arrears.

Cue the spreadsheets:

Click to enlarge.

My take: Apple caved.

See also: Apple-Qualcomm settlement: What the influencers are saying