Ming-Chi Kuo: How Huawei boycott could benefit Apple

Huawei’s smartphone shipments could decline by eight to 10 million a month if it cannot replace key Google software, Kuo estimates.

From CNBC’s US blacklisting Huawei could boost Samsung and Apple, top analyst says:

Samsung and Apple could benefit in the smartphone market after the United States put Huawei on a blacklist that effectively bans U.S. firms from doing business with it, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a note distributed on Saturday.

The move from the Trump administration could restrict Huawei from sourcing components from U.S. companies for its products and services, including some key Google Android software, leading to reduced smartphone shipments and forcing Huawei to find replacements for U.S.-banned components, according to the research…

“We think the most important impact would be losing brand trust if Huawei couldn’t offer stable shipments due to the U.S. export ban,” Kuo wrote in the note.

“We think Samsung might be the primary beneficiary if Huawei loses market shares in the non-Chinese smartphone markets. Apple might be the secondary beneficiary,” he continued. Huawei’s smartphone shipments could decline by eight to 10 million a month if it cannot replace key Google software, Kuo estimates.

My take: Kuo made his bones snagging secrets from Apple’s supply chain, not by measuring “brand trust.”

See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?