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Despite Massive Recovery from Lows, Expectations for Apple Keep Going Lower
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It goes without saying that the instant recession and massive drop in the stock market caught many investors off guard. After all, it’s not usual in any sort of panic selling to see the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all fall more than 30% in just over a month. What caught many investors equally off guard was the violent rally that has been seen since March’s lows. To have expected the stock market would recoup half of its losses in just over two weeks might make investors think that everything is settling down or even getting better.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) remains one of the market darlings and it gets the greatest attention by the investing community with a market cap of more than $1.2 trillion despite the massive sell-off. Apple shares had peaked at $327.85 in the bull market, but they had fallen as low as $212.61 on March 23, 2020. That’s a drop of 35% from peak to trough. As of Tuesday afternoon, Apple’s stock price had recovered an additional 5% to $287.00 for a trough to current recovery of 35%.
For a company with a $1 trillion market cap to have gained 35% from its recent v-bottom lows, most investors would likely think that things are looking back on track for the mighty Apple. So why is it that analysts on Wall Street who cover Apple are continuing to lower their expectations for 2020?
One such issue that remains at-risk is that Apple is viewed as being at-risk for delaying its 5G iPhone launch later in 2020. There is of course the possibility that things will stick to what had been expected, but the Apple worldwide developer day event is now going to be an all-virtual event. Apple has also had issues with its supply chain throughout Asia and it has extended the time for store closures.
24/7 Wall St. has tracked multiple analyst price target cuts in recent weeks, even after the stock recovered from the March 23 lows. One bit of good news that may be helping keep the shares up is Apple’s mountain of cash that rivals many nations.
On April 14, Canaccord Genuity maintained its Buy rating and $300 target price. When updating its smartphone estimates, the firm sees uncertain near-term iPhone sales while still suggesting that new products position Apple for strong longer-term recovery.
On April 9, Jeffrey Kvaal of Nomura/Instinet reiterated only a Neutral rating on Apple. While Kvaal raised Apple’s price target to $240 from $225, he noted that the coronavirus had put pressure on Apple, from supply chains to near-term demand to long-term macro concern. While Kvaal was positive about Apple’s robust ecosystem, multiple expansion, and a strong balance sheet, he said:
In our view however, a looming recession and inflated supercycle expectations sufficiently undermine the bull case to restrain our rating to Neutral.
Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities had already lowered his prior street-high target price down to $335 from $400. Ives, who had been steadily among the most bullish, had started warning that the 5G iPhone may be delayed. On April 6, Ives maintained his Outperform rating and $335 price target (down from $400 in prior weeks) noting that the iPhone 9/SE2, which will be the successor to iPhone SE, looks like the launch will be in the next few weeks with a mid-April goal delayed from the original March timeline due to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues throughout Asia. As for his thoughts on the 5G iPhone launch, he had said:
As consumers remain in lockdowns across major cities around the world with the COVID – 19 pandemic causing health and economic chaos, Apple remains in the eye of the storm. With iPhone 12 and the highly anticipated 5G models on the horizon slated for a September launch, instead Cupertino finds itself staring at a major quagmire whether to launch the phones this Fall. As we have discussed often with investors over the last few weeks we believe the chances for a launch in the September/October timeframe is “extremely unlikely” and would assign a 10% to 15% probability it happens.
JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating on Apple on April 8, but the firm lowered its price target down to $335 from $350. The call was based on a harsher look at sales volumes. The analyst, Samik Chatterjee, is looking at slower volumes in the second calendar quarter and the third calendar quarter with its stores outside of China closed longer than expected. Chatterjee had also warned of a modest delay of 1 to 2 months for 2 of the 4 5G iPhone models that are anticipated to be released in the fall.
On April 3, Credit Suisse maintained its Neutral rating and cut its price target to $260 from $250 and lowered its iPhone shipment expectations and earnings expectations for 2020. Morgan Stanley also maintained an Overweight rating but trimmed its price target to $298 from $328 on the same day, but Morgan Stanley had already trimmed its price target down to $328 from $368 on March 17.
One exception for Apple came on March 30 when BofA Securities added Apple to its Focus 1 list noting that COVID-19 was a transitory issue for Apple. Still, BofA had cut its price objective down to $320 from $350 just on March 11.
On March 30, UBS maintained its Buy rating but lowered its price target down to $290 from $335.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Apple to Buy from Hold on March 25, and while the stock was called “too cheap to ignore” Jeriel Ong still cut Apple’s target price down to $270 from $295 in that call after having previously said Apple’s stock was too expensive on the way up.
On March 17, Jefferies had maintained its Buy rating but the firm lowered its price target down to $320 from $370.
Apple shares closed up over 5% at $287.05 on Tuesday and the Refinitiv consensus analyst price target was back down to $306.85 after having been above $330 earlier in 2020 before the COVID-19 mess came to pass.
As a reminder, the stock market is a price discovery mechanism that aims to discount current news to see where things will be in a half a year or so in the future. That said, the efficient market hypothesis where all news is adequately factored into the market at any given time has proven over and over to be false.
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