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Report: NVIDIA Poised to Blow Out Earnings In Late 2024

Eric Bleeker

Published: July 14, 2024 10:06 pm

Last Updated: July 14, 2024 10:22 pm

Earlier today 24/7 Wall Street published a look at how blowout sales of NVIDIA’s new GB200 system could create a path for shares to hit $200 by the end of 2024. Tonight, reports out of Taiwan add further credibility to the idea Wall Street could be severely underestimating NVIDIA‘s (Nasdaq: NVDA) 2025 sales pipeline. Let’s look at the reports and what it could mean for NVIDIA’s stock. 

Need to Know News 

• If you’re an AI investor you need to grab a copy of 24/7 Wall Street’s brand-new AI report, “The Next NVIDIA.” You’ll discover many other stocks that could benefit from supplying NVIDIA and the next wave of growth in AI trends. 
• A report out of Taiwan’s supply chain on Sunday night points to NVIDIA raising orders at TSMC by 25% for its upcoming Blackwell chips. 
• The report also states NVIDIA could be readying 60,000 GB200 systems, an increase of 50% from prior estimates. 

Supplier Report Points to Future Blowout Earnings for NVIDIA 

The important supplier report comes from the Taiwanese Newspaper UDN. In it, UDN reports that:

• NVIDIA has raised orders by 25% for supplier Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) for its upcoming Blackwell chips. 
• Demand is being primarily driven by large cloud providers like Google and Amazon as well as companies like Meta and server makers like Dell. 
• The article notes that Taiwan Semiconductor is currently in a quiet period, but the strength of these orders could lead them to raise full-year guidance. 
• The report cites an average selling price of GB200 systems of $1.8 million. They can reportedly sell for up to $3 million each, but the average order size will be lower. 

An important caveat is there are no named sources for this report. However, reports out of Taiwanese supply chains have preceded increasing demand for AI chips over the past 18 months. More to the point, this report just continues adding “fuel to the fire” of the idea Blackwell’s demand is scorching hot. 

The Key to NVIDIA’s Next Year is the GB200 

I’ve written extensively about the GB200 being the key to NVIDIA’s share price across the next 12 months. Here’s what I had to say over a month ago. 

“And speaking of that, here’s how NVIDIA likely gets to $150 by the end of summer. If anything, news around B200 demand continues to improve with the most impressive demand lining up for its GB200 systems. Those systems combine NVIDIA networking and GPUs into a single platform that sells for up to $3 million each. You’re probably used to hearing in the media numbers around NVIDIA GPUs selling for $30,000 or $40,000 each, and in my opinion, the real number to watch is the number of GB200s selling since these systems have not only an incredible selling price but also serve to deepen NVIDIA’s “competitive moat” for the long run.

My belief is you could begin to see demand for Blackwell so strong that it pushes next year’s projections over $4 per share. The combination of analysts on Wall Street moving NVIDIA earnings estimates next year to perhaps $4.25 per share and also its multiple expanding to 35X (you’d expect NVIDIA to trade at a higher multiple than peers if its business outlook keeps improving) gets us to almost exactly $150 per share.”

As I covered earlier today, Wall Street is now racing to increase their EPS estimates for NVIDIA next year. Keybanc took their forecasts for NVIDIA’s Data Center group revenue from $140 billion next year to $200 billion (a 42% increase in their sales estimates for next year). 

Meanwhile, Keybanc took their earnings estimates for calendar 2025 up to $4.95, up from a previous estimate of $4.24. The key driver in Keybanc increasing those figures? Their increasing belief that GB200 sales will exceed all current expectations. As I noted earlier today, Wall Street taking their 2025 EPS estimates for NVIDIA north of $5 per share could push their share price to $200 per share. 

Other Suppliers Would Benefit As Well 

If reports of GB200 demand are accurate (and I think they will be), it’s important to note that NVIDIA won’t be the only winner. 

• Taiwan Semiconductor: On June 16th I highlighted the incredible tailwinds at Taiwan Semiconductor’s back, and they’re all now becoming reality extremely quickly. The company’s number one customer (Apple) is potentially entering a new supercycle this Fall thanks to AI features and its second-most important customer NVIDIA may be in its own Blackwell-fueled supercycle. Taiwan Semiconductor is preparing to raise prices on its customers and has relieved bottlenecks in advanced packaging that hampered GPU production in the last generation of chips. 
• Micron (Nasdaq: MU): Booming demand for the next generation of AI chips should keep fueling Micron’s rise. A better alternative is likely SK Hynix, but the stock is difficult to buy since it trades primarily in South Korea. 
• Dell (NYSE: DELL) And Super Micro (Nasdaq: SMCI): Dell and Super Micro may see some long-term challenges from the GB200, as it appears NVIDIA may be encroaching on their “turf” and dictating more of the system’s rack design. Yet, booming demand will certainly be a short-term driver for their sales. 

Finally, I want to emphasize you really need to read our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. I personally wrote it and included 3 of my favorite stock ideas, a complete map of the AI investing landscape, and much more. It’s complimentary but won’t be available forever!