Investing

Stock Forecast: Here's How Tesla (TSLA) Stock Gets to $700 Per Share

Eric Bleeker

Published: December 3, 2024 7:33 pm

How can Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) stock double? In the segment from the ‘AI Investor Podcast’ below, Eric Bleeker is joined by 7Investing Founder Simon Erickson to discuss the financial model he recently built to value Tesla’s shares. 

While Simon believes Tesla’s automobile business alone is worth just $141, he assigns enough value to their self-driving software and future robotaxi network to get their current fair value to around $700 per share. For a full discussion on how Simon values Tesla, watch the video or read the summary and transcript below. 

The Numbers Behind Tesla at $700 Per Share 

Here are some key points on how Tesla could be worth $700 per share. 

• Simon Erickson, the Founder of 7Investing, recently constructed a financial model to independently value each part of Tesla’s business and arrived at a value of $700 per share. 
• He projects Tesla’s automobile business alone is worth $141 per share, which is far below Tesla’s share price today. 
• Inputs for the automobile business include Tesla scaling a Model 2 car to 3 million units per year by 2030. 
• Overall sales across all Tesla’s cars reach 6.3 million units by Fiscal 2030 and 9.5 million by Fiscal 2040. 
• The larger input in Simon’s model is $355 billion in revenue from Tesla’s robotaxi network by 2040. The value of this network and Tesla’s full self-driving software is what accelerates their valuation to around $700 per share. 
• The model also assumes a $98 value on self-driving subscriptions. 
• One note of caution on this model, it assumes Tesla is successful rolling out a robotaxi network. Simon believes that even with Tesla trading at around $350 per share today, Tesla is still a buy. However, with his model placing so much value on Tesla’s robotaxi network, he would sell the stock if he saw the company falling behind or being unable to meet a timeline that saw the robotaxi network falling far behind his estimate that revenue can begin scaling by 2028. 

Transcript 

Below is a transcript of the video above that’s been lightly edited. 

[00:00:00] Eric Bleeker: Hello, everyone. I am joined by Simon Erickson, a former coworker, a good friend, but most importantly, one of the best growth analysts I know, Simon is the head of 7Investing. And what we want to do today is we’re building that 500, 000 AI portfolio We want to bring experts in, we want to get as many opinions across the space as possible.

[00:00:23] Eric Bleeker: And Simon has been generous enough to join us today, uh, specifically to talk about matters like Tesla, an upcoming IPO, and one stock that he’s very interested in after a recent selloff. So Simon, glad to have you on today. Eric, it’s really a pleasure to be here. Nice to see you again. I’m glad to join your program here this morning.

[00:00:43] Eric Bleeker: Yeah, always nice to get some time with Simon. So let’s just get right into it. You published a model on Tesla. Um, its shares have been absolutely skyrocketing post-election. Um, everybody wants to get in Tesla believing that there’s going to be favorable regulations to the company and Elon Musk in kind of Trump’s cabinet.

[00:01:03] Eric Bleeker: But you actually kind of have some numbers. Behind where you believe Tesla could be headed in the coming year. So could you kind of walkthrough, uh, kind of the, the reason that you built this model, first of all, and then also kind of the inputs that went into it and where you think Tesla shares could be if they kind of deliver on some of the, uh, robotaxi programs they have.

[00:01:28] Simon Erickson: Sure thing. Yeah. So, so first of all, Eric, you know, everybody has an opinion about Tesla. The model was built because everybody has an opinion on, on this company and the stock, right? Your grandmother has an opinion on Tesla. My dog has an opinion on Tesla. Everybody says it’s either the greatest thing in the world, or they hate Elon and think he’s becoming too political or whatever else it might be.

[00:01:48] Simon Erickson: And so the reason for the model in the first place was okay. As investors, somebody has got to do this. Somebody has got to put the numbers. You know, onto the page and say, this is what the company can really be worth. And of course, it’s impossible to know for sure how things are going to shake out for Tesla to two decimal points.

[00:02:06] Simon Erickson: But I think that using reasonable inputs, you know, based on the company’s historical manufacturing capacity, capacity for the cars, the expectations of the future revenues and the cash flows that are associated with those. And then also of course, some of the other projects that Elon has committed to.

[00:02:21] Simon Erickson: You know, we can get a pretty good feel for what the shares are or could be worth versus what they’re selling it today. So that was the reason for the model. To answer the second part of your question, Tesla is a, uh, is a complex company. There’s a lot of wheels turning, pun intended, of course, on that one.

[00:02:36] Simon Erickson: And first of all, it’s, of course, it’s a car company. You know, you can kind of model out how many vehicles it’s going to sell of each type. What’s the average selling price of those? You can kind of roll up revenues and cash flows from those. Especially it’s becoming more and more automated, but it’s not just a car company, right?

[00:02:51] Simon Erickson: It’s actually finding ways for these vehicles to incorporate recurring revenue that falls very quickly to the bottom line. If you’ve got a Tesla vehicle that has full self driving software, you know, they’re charging 99 on a standalone basis for that. Now you used to be able to buy it up front. Now it’s kind of a recurring revenue piece of the business.

[00:03:09] Simon Erickson: And then we’ll talk a little bit about the robotaxi network and how that could be even bigger than anything that Tesla has today, even as a car company. So kind of put all those together. It took me a solid month to build the DCF model, the discounted cashflow model, but somebody had to do it, Eric. And so I was going to do it and put it out there for seven investing.

[00:03:27] Eric Bleeker: Okay. So let’s, let’s maybe break this down a little bit more. Um, I had talked about Tesla in one of our earlier podcasts, I had said. I was just a little afraid of some of the uncertainty. I passed on adding that to the portfolio. I wish I had because it’s up 70 percent since then, but let’s, let’s talk about the input.

[00:03:45] Eric Bleeker: So what do you value Tesla on just as a standalone car company? And then we’ll build in the other factors.

[00:03:51] Simon Erickson: Sure. And so again, the inputs for these what we’re trying to do is we’re trying to forecast out all of Tesla’s revenue. Most important piece is how many cars is going to sell? What’s the selling price of those?

[00:04:01] Simon Erickson: And then how long is that going to continue? Right? And we’ve seen, you know, there’s that’s incredibly complex to even figure that out. Right? There’s a lot of competition going on in China. Now they’re introducing the cyber truck. How well is that going to sell? We’re talking about the model two, uh, cyber cab project, Redwood, whatever you want to call kind of the mass market vehicle, but I think we put some pretty good inputs together on, on just saying as a car company, here’s how many tests is going to do.

[00:04:27] Simon Erickson: Here’s the capacity of its manufacturing that it has right now. Here’s the CapEx. I think it’s going to expand the manufacturer that it has available. And then here’s the new models that’s going to introduce, uh, how, how into the weeds would we like to get into that bleeper? I can give you kind of the higher level if you’d like, or we can kind of get into the nitty gritty

[00:04:42] Eric Bleeker: if you want.

[00:04:43] Eric Bleeker: I believe you have a specific number and it’s maybe changed, but you know, when. When I last looked at your model, it was low, over a hundred dollars just for the car company. So is that where you’re at today? And what kind of inputs did you get to get there in terms of number of cars sold or other important factors?

[00:05:00] Simon Erickson: Yep, that’s right. So the, the previous, uh, quarter we’re the third quarter now we just got third-quarter reports from Tesla before this quarter. So one quarter again, Q2. Uh, they were having some problems with stockpiling inventory specifically in China. They just weren’t selling as well as they were expecting to.

[00:05:16] Simon Erickson: There was kind of, um, it was a little bit more pessimistic than we’ve gotten used to in Tesla’s quarterly reports. And earlier this year, I said, as you just alluded to that Tesla as a car company was worth about 105 a share, uh, which was quite a haircut from where the shares were trading. I think it was around 200, 250 at the time, basically saying that if it’s just a tar company, it’s worth half of that.

[00:05:39] Simon Erickson: I’ve increased that number. We got much more optimistic news here in the third quarter. You know, they sold pretty well. They exceeded the guidance that they had for the Model 3. Cybertruck is selling better than expected. I think as a car company, Tesla’s worth 141 a share. Eric, that’s still a lot less.

[00:05:57] Simon Erickson: That’s about, that’s about half. Of what the shares are selling at now, but, uh, you can kind of see, this is still a very difficult business when, you know, you’re, you’re clawing it out with your competitors and just trying to sell cars and do a lot of the marketing and, you know, the expenses that are required to get them out there.

[00:06:10] Simon Erickson: Low-margin business. Yeah.

[00:06:12] Eric Bleeker: And I’m, I’m thinking about this offhand. So these aren’t exact numbers, but if you’re at one 41 per share, that’s probably what 350 to 400 billion in that range, uh, valuation. So that in, in your base case, without a motive. Without the factors of self-driving kind of flowing through.

[00:06:31] Eric Bleeker: I believe that still makes them the most valuable car company in the world. Correct. A Toyota is somewhere 250 billion to 300 billion. I’m not sure at this moment. So that would still make them the most valuable car company, right?

[00:06:43] Simon Erickson: Yeah, absolutely. And you know, this is kind of with some assumptions on top of how well they’re selling right now.

[00:06:49] Simon Erickson: Right. We’ve already seen the Model S and the Model X and the three and the Y. And even now the Cybertruck selling well, I expect, uh, in my, in my model, I think by 2026. So, you know, a couple, about a year and a half out from where we’re at today, uh, we’re going to be, we’re going to start seeing 25, 000, uh, Tesla semis hitting the roads.

[00:07:07] Eric Bleeker: Okay. That will be

[00:07:08] Simon Erickson: included in the car business. This is, you know, this is commercial freight, you know, this is like Pepsi. They’ve got kind of a beta partnership. It seems like those are going well. I think that’s going to scale up to 50, 000 units by fiscal 2027. And then the big question, Eric, is really how well is the model two going to sell, right?

[00:07:22] Simon Erickson: Can Tesla really get a car out there that’s going to sell for 25, 000? Um, I, I think that Elon’s going to have to make a decision on whether he wants to hit that price point, or if he wants to get production earlier at a higher price point. Um, I, I think it’s very, very difficult to get a mass market car with the way he wants to do it, with the battery range and all the other components he wants to put into these vehicles.

[00:07:43] Simon Erickson: Um, I think that he’s going to sell it at a higher price point, just like we saw with the X and with the 3, and also with the Cybertruck. I think the same thing’s going to happen with the Model 2, but I expect, you know, 500, 000 units by fiscal 2026 end of year. A million units by fiscal 2027, and then scaling all the way up to 3 million units by fiscal 2030.

[00:08:03] Simon Erickson: Um, Elon tends to hit inflection points pretty well. Don’t hold him ever to exactly the date he’s first going to say of when stuff’s going to be available, but the dude is a genius operationally, and he is going to push up the scale for this quite significantly.

[00:08:16] Eric Bleeker: And can I just, one point of clarification, when you’re saying 3 million units, is that across the entire business for Tesla?

[00:08:21] Eric Bleeker: Is that the business-wide number? No. Or are you talking the model two?

[00:08:25] Simon Erickson: Model two, model two, 3 million units alone by fiscal 2030, I think 6.3 total units. Uh, okay. 6.3 million total units in that same year. And I forecast all the way out to 2040. Um, this is a company that I think is going to get to 9. 5 million vehicles per year by 2040.

[00:08:41] Simon Erickson: That sounds almost, that sounds crazy right now. You know, we’re at, we’re at a little less than 3 million per year today for Tesla. But I think that they’re going to. They’re going to continue to build more gigafactories, and continue to incorporate the technologies. And I think that they’re catching on quite well internationally as well.

[00:08:55] Simon Erickson: So if you have

[00:08:56] Eric Bleeker: the model in front of you, um, so what’s your kind of year by year, 2024, 2025, let’s just walk through where you see them going on a car business.

[00:09:05] Simon Erickson: Yep, sure. Total, total output, total deliveries for 2024. We’re at right now, uh, 1. 7 million, 2024, I think in 2025, next fiscal year. That goes up to 2 million vehicles, 2.

[00:09:21] Simon Erickson: 6 million, 2026, 6 million by 2030, 2035, 8 million, and then kind of hitting more of the plateau at 9. 4 million in 2040. About half of those would be from the model too, because I think that really the true inflection point is going to be when you have a, a mass-market vehicle that can compete with something like a Honda Accord or a Toyota Camry that has got full self-driving, fully incorporated and completely autonomous.

[00:09:46] Simon Erickson: This has been kind of the holy grail that Elon’s been trying to get to, not only for his own business and the economics that are so important of unleashing that for tests on the cash flows, but also this is I think what people want, right? I think that people want a fully autonomous car that not only you can get for 25, 000, but can make money for you if you send it out to give other people rides.

[00:10:08] Simon Erickson: I mean, it’s kind of, you know, a really important inflection point of the auto business. And you probably

[00:10:13] Eric Bleeker: have, what, three million roadsters per year by 2030?

[00:10:16] Simon Erickson: No, the roadster is in the history museums at this point.

[00:10:20] Eric Bleeker: Um, so, before we move on to, you know, the self driving pivot, because I know that’s a bigger factor in your Uh, model.

[00:10:28] Eric Bleeker: I’m just curious. What are kind of, when you are looking at the risk factors, this model, what are kind of the three risks you’re most worried about not hitting those numbers that you’ve put, um, all the way through 2030 and beyond?

[00:10:43] Simon Erickson: Yeah. I mean, the biggest risk of all is going to be the model too, just, just doesn’t get the kind of volumes that it needs to, you know, this is something that’s a big bet.

[00:10:50] Simon Erickson: We know that it’s a big bet. Elon likes to take little bets, you know, the test is semi. 50, 000 units a year, you know, 100, 000 a year. That’s not as big as something that Elon wants to get to 3 million or even 5 million units a year for the model two. So, so is that going to sell and become one of the best-selling, you know, small-size sedans in the auto market?

[00:11:09] Simon Erickson: There’s a, there’s the expectation that it will, if it doesn’t, that’s a big risk. And then the other big key risk is, you know, is Tesla actually going to get regulatory approval? For fully autonomous vehicles nationwide or internationally. This is why Elon is so interested in politics right now. He’s not just doing this because he’s bored or he thinks it’s fun.

[00:11:27] Simon Erickson: You know, there’s a reason he gave a hundred million dollars to President Trump’s campaign. You know, NHTSA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Association, federal, federal government division, you know, it controls safety of, of, uh, trucking fleets and everything goes on the highway. Kind of a boring division for so many decades, Eric.

[00:11:44] Simon Erickson: Yeah. That’s like the most exciting thing of all. That’s going to, you know, going to allow or not allow and have the regulations for full self-driving vehicles that would be on highways nationwide. Stuff like that is super important for Tesla’s future.

[00:11:56] Eric Bleeker: Yeah. And you know, you saw a big jump in Tesla shares earlier this week when we’re recording this based upon, uh, reports that the Trump administration has got streamlined some of those frameworks.

[00:12:06] Eric Bleeker: So what you’re talking about, we, we have very real things happening around it. So let’s. Make the pivot over to self-driving. I have a Tesla. I took two and a half hours of drives yesterday. Uh, it performed great. I I’ve been very impressed with, uh, kind of the step change in functionality around self-driving the past year.

[00:12:25] Eric Bleeker: They’re at, I believe a 1. 2 billion run rate and revenue for that business. But you actually, I, you know, I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but I believe last time I looked at your model, you had self driving as a bigger, uh, contributor. To the, uh, value of Tesla than actually their automotive business.

[00:12:43] Eric Bleeker: So is that still true? And could you walk through what you plan your model to arrive at that?

[00:12:49] Simon Erickson: And, and by the way, you nailed it right around a, you know, a billion to 1. 2 for, for the subscription revenue, a tied to the full self-driving, like, like you said, 99 a month, when you, when you calculate that out, there’s about 6.

[00:13:00] Simon Erickson: 7 million Teslas on the roads right now, globally, you know, about 7 million Teslas. That’s kind of awesome, right? When you think about it, you know, seven billion people, seven million Tesla’s one per thousand. I mean, that’s kind of amazing. They’ve already accomplished that. Um, but you know, about 10 percent of them, right.

[00:13:18] Simon Erickson: I’ve got, I’ve got the full self-driving subscription, right? 672, 000 have actually gotten or beta-tested the full self-driving. I think that increases pretty significantly. You know, we’re still in beta testing mode. We’re still in early adopters. I think the mass market is going to get more comfortable.

[00:13:33] Simon Erickson: With full self-driving in the next couple of years. Um, but there’s two pieces to this, right? The first is just the subscription that you get, right? Tesla’s got to put a lot of money into the neural networks. It’s buying the NVIDIA H100 chips. It’s got some, some pretty hefty electrical consumption for the computing required for these things.

[00:13:51] Simon Erickson: But at the end of the day, you get a car that drives itself and you’ve got somebody that’s paying you another 100 a month for the service. So that’s the first piece. It’s just a subscription revenue from the full self-driving software, the even bigger piece. So the even bigger than the subscription revenue is going to be the Tesla network, the robo taxi fleet, you know, the, the, the Uber comparison of whether you can replace a human driver in a taxi or in an Uber with a Tesla vehicle that picks you up and brings you exactly where you want to go.

[00:14:20] Simon Erickson: And if you can get on an app, With Tesla and book a ride and it picks you up using somebody else’s car that Tesla doesn’t even own the fleet for. Um, Tesla is going to be getting a cut of every single one of those rides. And I think that quite honestly, Eric, that is going to be a very significant driver of this business going forward.

[00:14:37] Simon Erickson: It’s probably the reason. That Elon is so interested in getting the regulations to work in his favor for autonomous driving. Yeah. So

[00:14:44] Eric Bleeker: let’s, let’s walk through the inputs, uh, to what valuations you have, uh, we could combine self-driving and, uh, you know, their, uh, robotaxi network. Uh, but what, what valuation do you have this at?

[00:14:58] Eric Bleeker: And what kind of inputs did you, do you have in your model to arrive at that valuation?

[00:15:03] Simon Erickson: Yeah. So first of all, I don’t think this is going to happen any sooner than 2028. You know, here we are coming up on fiscal 2025. I’m saying at least three years to figure this out. We’re not happening. This isn’t happening next week or next month or next year.

[00:15:15] Simon Erickson: You see a fleet of autonomous Tesla’s just driving around and picking up everybody. It’s still going to take time. Uh, but, but with the assumptions that I have, I think by 2028, there’s going to be 21 million Tesla’s in total on the roads. And I think a quarter of them are going to have full self-driving capabilities, right?

[00:15:32] Simon Erickson: So let’s call that, um, 5. 2 million full self-driving subscriptions. And of those, of those 5. 2 million that even have the full self-driving activated, I think 2 percent of them are going to be part of the full self-driving Tesla network. It is autonomously picking up people, right? So only 70, 000 vehicles out of 5.

[00:15:53] Simon Erickson: 2 million. And 20 million total Tesla’s out there pretty conservative assumption, but then you can kind of, you know, start modeling out. Well, what is that worth? You know, these 70, 000 cars are out there driving around. Let’s say they’re putting on average 50, 000 vehicles, excuse me, 50, 000 miles per vehicle every year.

[00:16:12] Simon Erickson: Let’s say that it costs a dollar per mile for the rider. About half of what you’d be paying for an uber right now, because there’s no manual labor or excuse me, not manual labor component. Nobody’s actually driving. A human being is not driving it. And let’s say that tesla takes 20 percent cut a take rate that goes to tesla of every one of the rides kind of on par with what Uber is right now.

[00:16:33] Simon Erickson: I mean, you add all of those up. Um, that’s a 700 million a year income stream to tesla in the first year in 2028. And that’s modest, right? 700 million is nothing compared to a hundred billion dollars that Tesla’s making right now per year on the, on the vehicle business. But I see that growing quite significantly up to 355 billion per year.

[00:16:56] Simon Erickson: From the robotaxi network by 2040. And then kind of, there’s a, there’s a, there’s a lot of assumptions in between there, but just to show you how big of a business this is, Eric, and then also that’s throwing off a lot of cashflow too, because in addition You know, there’s some upfront costs, right? You got to get the vehicles out there.

[00:17:13] Simon Erickson: You got to have the neural networks. You got to have the Nvidia chips in there, the computing, the electricity and stuff, but after you get it a critical mass, this is a real cash compounder for the business, which is a huge part of the valuation of the stock of what it could be worth. Yeah. What kind of margins

[00:17:27] Eric Bleeker: do you have that at, if you know, you’re, you’re looking at and saying, Oh, 355, is it 200 billion profit on that?

[00:17:33] Eric Bleeker: Or where’s that number fall for you?

[00:17:34] Simon Erickson: So I’ve got them all discounted back to the future, right? And so we can get into, I should have this right in front of me to show you the, to answer your question, but to show you the price per share of what I think this is worth. I think that the, um, we said earlier, I think the car business worth 140 per share.

[00:17:51] Simon Erickson: I think the assumptions I put into the full self driving software, not the RoboTaxi, but just the software itself are worth 98 a share. So another 100 a share on top of that. And then I think that the, the RoboTaxi network. When you discount all of the cash flows, all the revenues, you know, take out all the expenses.

[00:18:08] Simon Erickson: What’s the cash flow worth today? Um, I think with the assumptions that I have, I think that’s worth 456 per share if they, if they execute on. So, so clap, put all those together, you know, combine all those together. I think that Tesla is worth 700 a share. If it succeeds with RoboTaxi Autonomous Network out there and shares are trading today.

[00:18:29] Simon Erickson: You know, where are we today? I 37. I just looked it up. So so a good double a good double from where they are today. But again, it’s got to be beyond just being a car company.

[00:18:38] Eric Bleeker: And so when you accounting for risk when you’re building a model like this, is that just how you’re waiting? You know your cost of capital.

[00:18:45] Eric Bleeker: How do you account for risk when you’re building out a model like this?

[00:18:50] Simon Erickson: The cost of capital that I used for Tesla, bear with me one second as I kind of pull that one up for you, uh, 9. 72%. And again, Tesla is becoming a less risky company for people to lend money to because it’s got 30 billion of cash on its balance sheet right

[00:19:06] Eric Bleeker: now.

[00:19:06] Simon Erickson: Combination of equity and, and, and debt, uh, blended average cost of capital of 9. 7%. So

[00:19:11] Eric Bleeker: one of the key things with this podcast, I want to, you know, any, anyone can be Cramer and say, buy this, buy that, but hey, it’s, it’s where you’re pulling your actual money. That’s why we wanted to do a portfolio. It’s showing conviction at any given moment.

[00:19:24] Eric Bleeker: So, you know, I would ask, do you. Currently recommend if you’d feel comfortable saying this to Tesla to 7Investing, uh, members. And is this a stock you own? I’m, just curious where your current conviction is on the stock.

[00:19:37] Simon Erickson: Yeah Before I say that the answer to that I would say there’s a disclaimer There’s a there’s a big delta between 140 dollars a share and 700 dollars a share, right?

[00:19:47] Simon Erickson: Yeah, that’s purposeful That’s purposeful because Tesla has got a lot of pats in front of it If Tesla shuts down all of its AI and says, ah, too hard. I’m giving up. We’re not doing the Robo tax network. We’re not doing autonomous. Can you probably sell the shares? It’s probably vastly overvalued if you’re just thinking of this as a car company, it’s worth 140 a share just by selling some pretty sleek-looking vehicles out there, just not an attractive business.

[00:20:10] Simon Erickson: It’s too hard, too low a margin, too competitive. On the other hand, um, Elon knows this. He’s not just building giga factories that are putting steel out there and, and, you know, molding them into vehicles. He’s actually investing quite heavily in the data center piece of this, and he’s preparing all of the vehicles to be.

[00:20:28] Simon Erickson: These kind of recurring revenue generating full self-driving software equipped, you know, cars, and they’re also the robot taxing. It was so important. So the risk of that, if you’re investing in Tesla today at 335 a share, you, you assume that he’s going to be successful and the stock can probably double again.

[00:20:45] Simon Erickson: I personally think Tesla is a buy at 330 a share. It’s run up significantly because there is a, there is a de-risking of the uncertainty of getting regulations to work in its favor. And certainly Elon, um, knows the importance of that and that’s why he’s trying to be as influential as possible with the federal government right now on safety regulations for the highways.

[00:21:08] Simon Erickson: And I think that, you know, there’s a lot of other things too. There’s a lot of other optionality, you know, the Optimus robots, zero contribution to the model right now. Could he work something like that out? Yes. You know, Elon’s got a lot of irons in the fire, so to speak, that could incrementally, uh, work in his favor.

[00:21:24] Simon Erickson: But I think that in general, if you’re investing in Tesla, you’re doing it for one of two things. One, Elon is very smart and he makes good on his promises and two, it’s going to become an AI company successfully. It’s not going to abandon these projects. It’s going to stick with them. Elon has shown us time and time again, he’s pretty much right most of the time when it comes to making technical decisions.

[00:21:45] Simon Erickson: I think that probably continues and you got the right guy in the home and you got the right projects that can add a lot of value to the, to the share price today.