Why Oh YRC?

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

YRC Worldwide Updates Earnings Guidance: Financial News – Yahoo! Finance

The company now expects fourth quarter 2006 diluted earnings per share (”EPS”) to be in the range of $0.95 to $1.05 and full year 2006 earnings to be $5.00 to $5.10 per share. The company’s previous guidance was $1.40 to $1.50 per share for the fourth quarter and $5.45 to $5.55 per share for the year.

You’ll remember, of course, that the previous guidance had already been through a round of revisions. We warned investors in October to expect further cuts:

For the full year, YRC projects a profit of $5.45 to $5.55 per share on revenue of about $10 billion. In July the company had projected year earnings of $5.65 to $5.85 per share on revenue of $10 billion.

That is a $0.20 per share guidance reduction with just one quarter left in the year. Next year’s EPS could be $1.00 or more less than current estimates bake in. As we said before, trucks cost money even when they aren’t being used. As the economy slows, those companies like CH Robinson (CHRW) and Landstar (LSTR) that get their capacity from independent contractors on an as-needed basis have lower overhead expenses and remain profitable. If the economy slows much further, Yellow’s guidance reductions will be even larger.

So you can add this to the growing list of signs the consumer is out of gas.

Disclosure: Author owns put options on FedEx

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author’s current holdings are as follows: Long: FedEx (FDX) put options; Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion’s Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Ceradyne (CRDN) put options; Lion’s Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Plantronics (PLT) put options

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/