Telecom & Wireless

Qualcomm's Rosy Forecast: Too Good To Be True?

Qualcomm (QCOM) raised its forecasts for the next quarter and the stock was one of the few large caps that rose yesterday during the market sell-off. The company said that chip sales to handset manufacturers were going better that expected. The firm raised its guidance to the $2.1 to $2.2 billion range from the previous $2.0 to $2.1 billion. The company also raised its estimates for the number of chips it will sell.

For one day, at least, it was easy to forget how much trouble Qualcomm is having. The company’s stock is still down 15% over the last year. That is after being up about 100% over the last five years.

The litany of Qualcomm’s problems is very long and vexing.

Qualcomm is locked in multiple disputes with its largest customer, Nokia (NOK). In 2005, it sued the world’s largest handset company for patent infringement.  Licensing talks between the two companies are making no progress although the current arrangement expires on April 9. If the Nokia license for Qualcomm’s third generation chips lapses, the trouble for the company is terrific. As one investor told TheStreet.com: "This is the cornerstone of the bear case on Qualcomm."

And, there are multiple disputes between Qualcomm and Broadcom (BRCM). The two companies have several patent claims pending against one another.

Taken together, Qualcomm’s battles with customers and competitors are likely to keep a cap on it stock price. A modest tick up in chips sales is not going to alleviate that.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

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