Bernstein Research predicts that Comcast (CMCSA) will pass Vonage (VG) as the No.1 provider of VoIP service in the US when Q1 is reported. The firm’s analysis shows that the largest US cable company will have 4.38 million voice customers at the end of this year, according to Barron’s. Further, Comcast could have 11.93 million customers by 2010.
All of this is terribly bad news for the telephone companies, especially AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). Their landline businesses are cash cows, and the penetration of cellular users in the US has reached a point where they can no longer count on hyper-growth from that sector.
Fiber to the home may be the one salvation for the big telecoms. It will put them at the crossroads of TV and the residential user. But, it will probably come too late.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
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