Palm (PALM) Pre Won't Do Sprint (S) Much Good

Morgan Stanley does not think that the new Palm (PALM) will do much for Sprint (S). The reasoning is that the carrier will sell about 1.5 million units of the Pre in the first six month after its launch, but 70% of those will be upgrades.

The research arm of the investment bank likes AT&T’s (T) chances with the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. A new version of the handset will probably be out in a month. The iPhone only has 2% of the US cellphone market.

The danger is betting on the iPhone and AT&T is not that they won’t do well. It is that the market already expects them to do well. Even the slightest negative deviation from the market’s “best case” for the new iPhone, which is the case that most investors believe, could push Apple’s shares down significantly and AT&T’s shares down modestly.

Apple’s stock has gained 60% in three months. If the Pre looks like it is on track to sell two million units in the first six months that it is out, or RIM’s (RIMM) results for Blackberry sales beat industry estimates, Apple’s shares won’t hold $140, which is where they trade now.

Douglas A. McIntyre