No Buyout At The End Of The Rainbow For Palm (PALM)

Contrary to the growing optimism for a takeout, Palm (PALM) is a company with little revenue, huge losses, a messy financing situation, and an expensive stock that would appear to have few suitors.

By all accounts, the Pre is a slick device that’s seen as a step ahead of similar phones from Nokia (NOK), Research in Motion (RIMM), Samsung, SonyEricsson, LG Electronics, and even Apple (AAPL). Introduced earlier this month, it has a nifty slide-out keyboard. The operating system is intuitive. It has a built-in time-saving feature that integrates Microsoft (MSFT) Outlook, Google (GOOG) and Facebook calendars.

Rave reviews and the waiting list to buy a Palm Pre has helped drive the company’s stock up more than 13-fold in a little more than six months. And it’s led analysts and the media to speculate that there might be multiple companies willing to plunk down the billions to buy the company to get the future Pre revenue stream.

This morning, MarketWatch arguably added to that speculation, writing that Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are rumored to have Palm takeout interest.

But are there really multiple companies willing to make a $3 billion investment to get their hands on what might be the niftiest cell phone of the moment?

Following are the top 6 reasons why a Palm takeout might not be in the cards:

1) Why now? The Pre’s launch has been largely anticipated. So if large suitors with weren’t ready to buy out Palm when the stock was at $1.14 in December, why would they do so now, with the stock close to $15? And if any were really big believers in it, why wouldn’t they at least do a deal ahead of the Pre’s launch, to take advantage of a surge in initial orders?

2) Microsoft allegiance. What would Hewlett-Packard or Dell be getting if they bought Palm, other than the Pre? For one, they’d be getting another handheld operating system to support, one that competes with offerings from Microsoft. Neither company has ever made big strides away from Microsoft consumer software. Why would they start now?

3) Who else? Other than H-P or Dell, who would buy Palm? The large consumer electronics companies such as Nokia, LG, Samsung, and SonyEricsson appear more likely to refresh their lineups to better compete with the Pre, rather than to buy the fledgling product.

4) Follow-up. Palm hasn’t had the reputation as the technology leader in handhelds for a long time. It has few models that are top worldwide sellers. And rightly or wrongly, its other brands, particularly the Treo, often are seen as the poor cousins of the BlackBerry and the iPhone. For a company to buy Palm, it would likely be betting on multiple products, not just one. And it’s been years since Palm has had multiple product hits on its hands.

5) The financials. Palm doesn’t make money. There’s no assurances that the Pre will change that. The net income line has gotten worse in the February quarter in each of the past three years, as has the cash generated from operating activities. The company may need to rely on private equity funding going forward. But what’s most important is that Palm’s revenue line is small. Average revenue the past 5 years has been $1.34 billion – and that encompassed some pretty good years for the industry.
6) The incentive. One of the most lucrative ways that hardware makers have sought to market the hottest hardware is through exclusive carrier deals, like the one Apple has with AT&T (T) for the iPhone. Now that U.S. Senators are investigating those types of deals, believing that they may harm consumers, it’s possible that one of the best ways for a potential acquirer to profit from the Pre could be potentially shut off to them in the future.

Mike Tarsala