Two Billion People May Be Online This Year

Want proof the world is getting smaller?  A United Nations agency estimates that 2 billion people will be online at the end of this year, up from 1.4 billion in 2009 and almost 1.6 billion now.

But as the world’s borders shrink, the digital divide becomes stark.   In developed countries, 65 percent  of people have access to the Web at home, compared with 13.5 percent in developing countries, according to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). It found that 65 percent  of Europeans,  55 percent of residents of the Americas and 21.9 percent of  people in the Asia-Pacific region.  That figure is 9.6 percent for Africans.  Broadband penetration will reach 8% globally by the end of the year with higher rates in the developed world versus poorer countries.  The news for the less well-off, however,  was not all bad.

“While high-speed Internet is still out of reach for many people in low-income countries, mobile telephony is becoming ubiquitous, with access to mobile networks now available to over 90% of the global population,” the organization says. “ITU’s new data indicate that among the estimated 5.3 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2010, 3.8 billion will be in the developing world.”

The ramifications of this trend are huge.  Vast oceans that separate continents now can be crossed with the click of a mouse.  Were it not for the Internet, Americans probably would have never discovered that prescription drugs were a helluva lot cheaper in other countries.  Chinese people would never learn about the world’s events from perspectives other than state-supported media.  Iranians would have never seen democracy crushed in their country after a young woman’s tragic murder at the hands of the state was captured for all the world to see.

As more people go online,  so do the dangers to developed countries.  International cybergangs already cause mayhem on corporate and government networks.   Outsourcing will go into overdrive since poorer people with broadband connections will be able to work cheaply and efficiently.

“Broadband is the next tipping point, the next truly transformational technology,” ITU Secretary-General Hamadoun Touré. “It can generate jobs, drive growth and productivity, and underpin long-term economic competitiveness.”

Children born today will laugh when their parents tell them stories about growing up in a world without the Web. If the U.S. expects to remain competitive in the global economy, it must increase the speed of its Internet connections, which rank about 28th in the world.   Otherwise, young people will find tales of America’s economic might to be just as incredible.

–Jonathan Berr