Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) CEO Stephen Elop is scheduled this Friday to announce a plan to turn the Finnish phone giant around. An internal memo from Elop has hit the street, and it offers a preview of what Nokia is about to announce.  In short, Elop says Nokia needs to leap from its “burning platform” into an “unknown future” that will transform the company. Maybe, but not likely.

As Elop outlined Nokia’s problem, he pointed to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) as examples of how Nokia has failed to keep up. Apple “changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range.” Android, Google’s mobile OS, “came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and quickly they are going downstream to phones under 100 euros.” Even at the low-end, Nokia is failing to compete with Chinese suppliers.

The latest report on mobile market share from Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) proves Elop’s point.  Nokia lost 7.5% of its lead in worldwide sales in 2010. The company shipped more than 460 million units in 2010 for market share of 28.9%. Apple shipped just a tenth of that number, but its share grew by 0.8%. Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM)grew share by 0.2%.

In smartphone sales, Nokia did even worse, losing 9.3% share, even though it still led in unit shipments. Android-based phones grew share from 3.9% to 22.7%, and iPhone shipments also gained 1.3% of share.

Elop’s analysis of what happened at Nokia is succinct and damning: “We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time.” He notes that Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, “and we still don’t have a product that is close to their experience.” Android is eating Nokia’s lunch too: “this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes. Unbelievable.”

Actually, not so unbelievable. Nokia’s ingrown culture and complacency has to change dramatically. Elop is expected to announce some changes in senior management on Friday, but he has to be careful even about that. A wholesale house-cleaning might not have the energizing impact that Elop expects. A more likely outcome is that morale among the troops will crash, and everyone will become more conservative, rather than more aggressive.

Elop has outlined Nokia’s problems accurately, but his chances of fixing them approach zero. The company can’t do anything about Apple at the high-end, or Android at the mid- to low-end, and the Chinese makers at the very low-end, at least not quickly enough to make a significant difference. Jumping from the “burning platform” won’t return Nokia to prominence. It might not even save it.

Paul Ausick

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