The Future of Wi-Fi Is Dim, at Best

The Wireless Broadband Alliance predicts that “global public Wi-Fi hotspot numbers are set to grow from 1.3 million in 2011, to 5.8 million by 2015, a 350% increase.” The organization has no way to know that, but the conclusions of its report are interesting anyway. The forecast shows that without growth in China and Japan, the use of Wi-Fi will not rise nearly as rapid as expected by the association. The report also does not talk about the effect of 3G and 4G networks.

“China Mobile alone plans to deploy a million hotspots and Japan’s KDDI plans to grow its 10,000 Wi-FI hotspots to 100,000 within six months,” the reports says. What it does not say is that Wi-Fi use may not be the method by which most Chinese and Japanese get online. Japan is already well along deploying superfast 4G networks. China has begun to aggressively install 3G systems. Outside the two large Asian nations, 4G has begun to become standard in South Korea, the U.S., the UK and much of the EU.

The Wireless Broadband Alliance has every reason to promote its view of the future. Its members are in the business of the manufacturing and deploying Wi-Fi technology. The association says 3G and 4G networks will interoperate with Wi-Fi seamlessly. But well-built broadband infrastructure will make Wi-Fi unnecessary in many geographic locations.

The future of Wi-Fi is actually very limited. It quickly has become the technology of the past decade. Smartphone and tablet PC users connect to most networks through companies like AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless. The Wireless Broadband Alliance and the success of its members are yesterday’s news.

Douglas A. McIntyre