The Two-Day RIM Rally... A Bridge Too Far

Telecom & Wireless

Published: November 1, 2012 1:33 pm

Last Updated: April 28, 2020 7:33 am

Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) may have run up too much in the last two days. Shares were up on Wednesday, after being closed for two days with the broader US markets, on word that carriers were going to get to test Blackberry 10. Shares are up yet again on Thursday on word that the Blackberry 10 is on time for the first quarter debut in 2013. The extent of this move is likely being exaggerated by short sellers who are covering their short sale positions. If not, then this is simply no different from rewarding your kids for anything short of bad behavior.

Everyone knows that RIm has been battered. It is so unloved that on top of short covering, any news that is not catastrophic news is rewarded with another stock pop. As far as why the run has been too much, well the stock closed at $7.57 last friday, then rose 4.75% to $7.93, and now today with more than two hours until those close we have shares up another 8.3% to $8.59.

The move we have seen if effectively two rallies on the same news flow. We have also seen some caution out of Jefferies showing that these lab trials are generally 3 months to 6 months, but we will leve that assessment to them. Jefferies has an Underperform rating on the stock with a target down at $5.00 per share, so they are of course more than cautious here.

The rally speaks for itself, but it is a move which just feels like it is too much on a normal basis. The caveat here is that this stock lost some 90% or so of its value so bottom-fishers try to pile in here whenever a turn is conceivable. That being said, RIM’s rally can defy logic if traders ever want to really get behind a move to the upside.

With shares at $8.59, the market cap is now only $4.4 billion and the 52-week trading range is $6.22 to $19.95.

JON C. OGG

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