Why AT&T's Earnings Will Lag Verizon's

Telecom & Wireless

Published: July 23, 2014 10:45 am

Last Updated: April 28, 2020 10:13 am

Analysts now expect that AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) will report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.63 after markets close Wednesday. That is a penny less than the consensus estimate just two days ago.

What happened between now and then was a solid earnings report from AT&T’s primary competitor, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ). Verizon’s results were telegraphed last week when the company pre-announced is new subscriber additions. Verizon Wireless added 1.4 million net retail connections in the second quarter, of which all were postpaid (contract) subscribers. At the end of the quarter, Verizon Wireless claimed 35.2 million retail accounts and 104.6 million retail connections. Average revenue per account (ARPA) rose 4.7% year-over-year to $159.73 a month, essentially flat sequentially.

AT&T added more than 2 million new wireless and wireline subscribers in the first quarter, but has said nothing about its second-quarter results. If it had something to say, we’d have heard it by now certainly. The EPS estimate is nearly 5% lower than the company posted in the second quarter a year ago. The company is betting that its proposed merger with DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) will put it back on the path to earnings growth. That remains a long ways off, if it happens at all.

Another anchor around AT&T’s neck is the number of legacy customers who are still on unlimited data plans. Where Verizon has only 22% of its wireless customers remaining on those cheap plans, AT&T could have as many as 44% of its subscribers still on the cheap plans. AT&T claims that 81% of its smartphones are on metered data plans, but the number of smartphones is not necessarily identical with the number of plans.

Following its official earnings announcement Tuesday morning, Verizon’s share price was unchanged after the trading day on average daily volume. AT&T shares have been losing steam since last Tuesday, when they closed at $36.24. At Tuesday’s closing price of $35.94, the shares were down about 0.8%. The stock traded down another 0.3% Wednesday morning at $35.85.

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