Can Apple Sell 92 Million iPhones?

By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Sep 15, 7:00AM EDT · Published Sep 14, 8:45AM EDT

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There is no bigger Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) fan among Wall Street analysts than Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. His optimism extends to his prediction that Apple will sell 92 million new iPhones in 2014. The early sales rates of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus models support Munster’s prediction. Apple and wireless carriers like AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) say they are out of the smartphones. As a matter of fact, AT&T Mobility’s CEO said the launch of the iPhone 6 was a milestone for the carrier. Glenn Lurie, the chief executive officer of AT&T Mobility commented, “This is our biggest iPhone, preorder launch day ever.”

Apple’s success could be its own greatest enemy as it drives for record sales in the final three and a half months of the year. Its website says many versions of the iPhone 6 will not be available for three to four weeks (with free shipping). Apple has a track record of underestimating demand, or keeping supply constrained to create the appearance of demand. In either case, each day that its supply chain cannot cough up phones is another day the 92 million figure is in jeopardy.

Another barrier to the success of the iPhone 6 is a potential glitch in its performance, or some problem that could cause the iPhone 6 to need some alteration or repair. Such a problem is not simply a matter of imagination. In 2010, the iPhone 4 had antenna problems. The Apple solution was for people to get a special case or hold the phone in a way that helped boost reception. Although the trouble created a black eye, it did not appear to curb demand. Yet, as is true of all consumer electronics devices, there is always a risk that a new product will not be glitch free.

The best sign for Munster, as a financial analyst, is that Apple will meet its share price target. At more than $100, it is near a 52-week high. On December 31, 2014, the price may be as good an indicator as any other as to whether Munster’s call was right.

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.