Telecom & Wireless

Why 3 Analysts See AT&T Rising to $40 or Higher

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If you were just following the tape after the AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) analyst day, you might think that most of the investment community was losing faith after rekindled bullish hopes on the heels of the DirecTV acquisition. 24/7 Wall St. has seen much data that thinks the initial move might have been a gut reaction after a recovery that was simply the wrong way.

To prove a point, AT&T has been given very high marks by several key analysts after its analyst day presentation. Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, and Wells Fargo all see AT&T rising to $40.00 or higher.

Merrill Lynch noted in its report that AT&T is fundamentally sound, with a stable subscription-based business model. Historically, the stock has outperformed during periods of M&A and wireless margin expansion has fueled earnings per share (EPS) growth and during periods of market uncertainty when AT&T’s dividend yield, solid balance sheet and predictable business model are highly valued. The firm expects AT&T will generate improved financial performance post acquisition of DirecTV with upside to consensus EPS, greater dividend coverage and upside to synergy targets.

The firm detailed its thoughts on the guidance given by the company:

AT&T updated 2015 guidance and provided an outlook for 2016-2018. Big picture, the ’15 initial post-deal guide is $0.09 below our pro forma estimate which we attribute to a range of conservative out of the gate assumptions while the 3 year forward picture is better than we forecast. Payout ratio guidance ‘in the 70% range’ implies better than projected free cash flow generation as management reiterated its view with regard to long term capital intensity in the 15% ‘or lower’ range. AT&T management took several opportunities to highlight risks and uncertainties that are baked into forecasts while highlighting synergy upside potential that is not, such as cross-selling revenue opportunities.

As a result Merrill Lynch analysts, David Barden, Michael Funk, and Stephen Douglas, reiterated a Buy rating with a $40 price objective, implying an upside of 17.5% from current prices.

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Credit Suisse analyst, Joseph Mastrogiovanni, described AT&T’s analyst day as reassuring to the firm’s Outperform rating. While financial guidance given by the company was in line with expectations, Credit Suisse came away with a strong sense that this outlook could prove conservative. Ultimately the firm believes this event will kick off a series of catalysts, including potential raises to synergy guidance for DirecTV, growth in Latin America and potential upward estimate revisions, as synergies and strategic initiatives are achieved.

While DirecTV trends were soft in the second quarter, Credit Suisse continues to believe the benefits of the combined company will shine over time. It’s common for companies going through a merger to experience some slack during the process. Now that the deal is closed, the firm expects that slack to tighten, as AT&T rolls out attractive bundles of phone, TV and broadband. Management noted that the early launch results have been better than expected.

Credit Suisse reiterated its Outperform rating with a $40 price target and raised its 2015 and 2015 EPS estimates to $2.66 and $2.80 from $2.61 to $2.70, respectively.

As for Wells Fargo, this investment bank believes that while there are clearly many moving parts and more news flow still to come, the company has effectively laid out a case why the combined model offers a differentiated and attractive product set – even in the face of a declining linear TV acceptance trend.

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While Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse focused on the dividend and cable/phone/internet bundles, Wells Fargo took a different approach and looked at fiber:

What surprised us most was constant theme of the importance and focus and push for fiber coming out of AT&T. While we knew about AT&T’s commitment to Federal Communications Commission for 12MM FTTP (Fiber to the premise) homes, what we learned in breakout sessions is WLL (Wireless local loop) is not really part of the plan right now. The plan is to build 14MM homes and businesses with GigaPower. CEO Stephenson hinted this could go higher. Fiber spend is key to much of AT&T’s strategy on both sides of its business. It was mentioned as a lynch pin to cloud NetBond push, wireless backhaul and (of course) GigaPower strategy. Simply put, fiber touches each piece of AT&T’s current strategy and per John Stankey, “part of a 10-yr cycle” (we sense the early part).

Wells Fargo concluded by adjusting its model to now incorporate the DTV assets. The new 2015 revenue and earnings estimates are $152.0 billion and $2.65 per share up from $132.9 billion and $2.58 per share. The estimates for 2016 were moved up to $171.2 billion in revenue and $2.78 in EPS from $133.0 billion and $2.58, respectively. The valuation range was also moved up to $40 to $42 from $36 to $38.

Shares of AT&T were relatively flat at $34.05 on Thursday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $36.98 and a 52-week trading range of $32.07 to $36.45.

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