When Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) reported earnings on Tuesday morning, the reaction was worse than most investors would have ever expected. It turns out that Verizon is suffering from the ongoing price and services war among cellular carriers. Still, there may remain a lot of things that attract investors who are looking for upside and income over the long term.
24/7 Wall St. has tracked many analyst calls on Verizon after earnings. To put a one-day drop of over 4% in context, this is highly unusual. It is also worse than you would expect to see on days when there is a market crash.
Many analysts have trimmed their price targets and earnings expectations ahead. That was only very predictable after the reaction we saw in the market. There are still a few analysts who were quite positive on Verizon, and now there may just be that much more opportunity for what is the top dog in the Dogs of the Dow for high dividends.
Verizon reported fourth-quarter and full-year results, with a miss of $0.03 in earnings per share for the quarter and with disappointing revenue and earnings guidance for 2017. Verizon now sees revenue as flat in 2017 from 2016 on an organic basis, but that excludes its divestiture of wireline assets to Frontier and the AOL acquisition — and that means that the gross numbers will generate a decline of about 1% on a reported basis. Verizon previously had guided revenue growth to be in line with GDP growth.
RBC Capital markets downgraded Verizon shares to Sector Perform from Outperform. The firm also cut its price target to $51 from $54 in that call. FBR Capital downgraded Verizon to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its price target to $52 from $57.
Verizon was maintained as Hold at Jefferies, but the firm lowered its target price to $51 from $53. Its note said:
Results were indicative of the highly promotional fourth quarter, highlighted by an aggressive iPhone 7 promotion. While handset additions were positive, margins paid a steep price. ARPA and churn also disappointed. In our view, investors will be disappointed with guidance that implies only 1% EPS growth, well below expectations and prior commentary, driven primarily by expected continued ARPA pressures.
As far as the other analyst price target cuts, they were numerous, seen as follows:
- Barclays has an Equal Weight rating and cut its target price to $52 from $53.
- Cowen has a Market Perform rating and cut its target to $49.
- JPMorgan has a Neutral rating and cut its target price to $52 from $54.
Again, some analysts remained quite positive after earnings. 24/7 Wall St. tracked calls of this sort from Merrill Lynch and Argus.
Merrill Lynch maintained its Buy rating and $59 price objective. The view is that Verizon’s upside is a high-yielding and derisked tax reform play. The Merrill Lynch investment rationale said:
Verizon has the most defensible wireless subscriber base in the industry with superior profitability. The company emerged from the recent spectrum auction with a stronger balance sheet post-asset divestitures. We expect Verizon’s earnings growth to outpace peers.
Argus maintained its Buy rating and kept a $60 price target. The firm said:
As the U.S. wireless smartphone market has reached saturation, Verizon expects wireless video and the “internet of things” to drive data usage, revenue, and earnings. We think that management’s strategy of driving increased data usage aligns well with secular market trends. Verizon also plans to maintain its lead in wireless network connectivity as it moves to the next generation 5G standard. Verizon appears favorably valued at current levels, with a projected 2017 P/E of 13.1, below the peer average of 17.7.
Verizon shares fell more than 4% to $50.12 on Tuesday. Its shares were down another 2.2% at $49.05 on Wednesday morning, in a 52-week trading range of $46.01 to $56.95. Verizon’s consensus price target had been listed as $53.27, but that is likely to adjust lower after all the price target cuts are taken into consideration.
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