Airline Traffic Gains in October, Trends to Watch (UAL, LCC, AMR, LUV, DAL, FAA)

When US airlines reported third quarter earnings last month, the results were impressive and their share prices received a nice boost. The good news mostly continues to roll in, as the carriers have now posted their October passenger miles reports.  United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL), US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC), AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) all showed improved traffic in October compared with October 2009.

United posted revenue passenger miles for combined mainline and regional routes up 5.9% from a year ago. The regional figure grew 10.5% by itself. US Airways posted an increase of 6.9% on its mainline routes and 10.2% on its regional routes.

American reported revenue passenger miles up 2.4% overall in its mainline routes and up 18.3% on its American Eagle/executive routes. Southwest’s traffic increased 8.3%, and Delta’s traffic was up 8.6% overall and 0.2% in its domestic regional routes. Delta’s Latin American regional miles fell -16.4%.

Available seat miles, which measures how much capacity the airlines put in the air, also rose, and load factor, which is the ratio of passenger mile to available miles, also rose. United’s consolidated load factor increased from 82.8% in October 2009 to 83.5% this year.

US Airways reported an increase in load factor from 81.9% a year ago to 82.2% this year. American’s mainline load factor rose from 80.8% to 82.2% and its regional rate rose from 73.3% to 75.4%. Southwest’s load factor went up from 79.2% to 81.7%.

Delta was the only airlines to report a reduction in load factor, from 84.1% a year ago to 83.4% this year. Again, Delta saw a large drop in Latin America, where load factor fell from 73.1% to 61.5% on its regional routes.

Airlines’ share prices have all risen at least 50% in the past 12 months, with United up nearly 300% and US Airways up more than 250%, as passengers get back on the planes. The fees for everything from checked baggage to peanuts have not sent passengers to other forms of transportation. Of course, unless you want to drive, there really is no viable alternative to getting from Helena, Montana, to Athens, Georgia.

Airlines stocks are trading near their 52-week highs, as is the Guggenheim Airline ETF (NYSE: FAA). There is not much action in pre-open trading this morning.

Paul Ausick