Boeing's 787 Dreamliner Faces 9th Delay (BA, EADSY)

When Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) announces a delay for its long-awaited 787 Dreamliner, most of us check the date on the announcement to make sure we’re not reading a press release from a year or two ago. Today’s announcement caused the same reaction, but, unlike some of the others, this one was not unexpected.

After a Dreamliner caught fire during a test flight in November, it was a certainty that Boeing would be forced to push out its delivery date past the then-current “early 2011” estimate. The company later set a mid-February target, but anyone who believed that probably also believes in the Easter Bunny. Now, the company says it will deliver the Dreamliner in the third quarter of 2011.

Boeing competitor EADS (OTC: EADSY), makers of the Airbus, announced an order for 60 new single-aisle A320s, including 30 of the new fuel-efficient models, the A320neo. The order pushed Airbus orders taken in 2010 to 644, slightly ahead of Boeing’s 625 new orders. Both companies have announce increases to list prices for their airplanes for 2011.

The plane was originally due to be delivered in May 2008, but things started to go sour fast. We did a timeline recap of the delays following the November fire.

Last week the company tried to blame government regulators for delaying delivery of the Dreamliner because the Federal Aviation Administration needs to certify that the plane is air-worthy and Boeing was a captive of the FAA and its schedule. That certainly seemed to be stretching reality to the breaking point.

In any event, the market has reacted favorably to Boeing’s announcement, mainly because no one with any sense was expecting delivery before the second half of 2011. But why should anyone believe Boeing this time?

The main reason to have hope is that none of the problems with the plane at this point are likely to kill the program. From an investor’s point of view, that would be a knife in the heart.

Still, Boeing’s history of problems with the Dreamliner, and its ham-fisted efforts at recovering from those problems, shouldn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the company’s ability to meet this new deadline. Boeing noted that it has built-in some slack in the schedule to allow for delays in obtaining certification from the FAA.

Boeing’s earnings for 2010 will not be affected by the new delay because forecasts did not include any revenue from the 787 Dreamliner. The company will talk about the impact on 2011 revenue when it releases earnings next week.

Boeing’s shares are up about 2.5% this morning, to $71.86, safely within the stock’s 52-week range of $57.14-$76.00.

Paul Ausick