Have you been hit or almost been hit by a car driver talking on their cellphone?  Thousands of Americans have died as a result of phone-use related accidents.  Thousands more have been injured.  If you enjoy bicycling and use your bike often in cities, chances are high that you would like to be able to rip cellphones out of drivers’ hands or manually insert such devices into parts of those drivers.  Many states, cities, and counties have bans or have regulations on acceptable use of cellphones and devices and the news today may mark the long beginning of the end for cellphone abuse by drivers.

The National Transportation Safety Board, usually referred to as the NTSB in public, is announcing a major safety recommendation related to “driver distractions caused by driver use of personal electronic devices.”   The NTSB Fact Sheet notes, “The NTSB has called on the 50 states and the District of Columbia to ban the nonemergency use of PEDs (other than those designed to support the driving task) for all drivers.”

Frankly, the new recommended ban has little chance of success in the current form, even if parts of this should proceed.  A call to ban all electronic devices in vehicles regardless of how they are used (except in cases of emergencies or integrated into the transportation needs) will not garner much public support as it is somewhat like stretching the limits of drunk driving blood levels all the way out to a new attempt of prohibition.

Still, this NTSB recommendation may be the start of a larger move to keep cellphones from being abused by drivers in many locations where no regulations exist.  Drivers who text often cross 50 feet to 50 yards of pavement in a shorter period of time than it takes to type in “lol” or even “driving.”  By the way, calling your friends to gossip about things or to see what is up for the night or weekend are not exactly ’emergencies’ under this plan.

There could also be rules for teenagers that are different from adults.  Many cities already have curfews for minors and technically minors are not allowed the same liberties and rights as adults who have a bit more life experience under their belts.

You can expect an outright assault from the phone makers and headset makers, the wireless carriers, the tower operators, and even the communication infrastructure equipment to fight this recommendation if it were to gather any momentum. Also, keep in mind that the NTSB has zero power to enforce or even to propose any such bill to move into law.  All it can do is to make recommendations for safety regarding transportation activities.

Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) is one headset maker that would severely if there was a nationwide ban on holding your cellphone but still allowed drivers to use cellphones if they have wireless or wired headsets for their mobile phones.  Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) would all fight a total ban on cellphone use under any circumstances other than emergency use.

American Tower Corporation (NYSE: AMT) and Crown Castle International Corporation (NYSE: CCI) have spent billions of dollars putting in cellphone towers around the nation, including the highways, to make it so that drivers can stay connected on their cellphones whether those drivers need to or not.

The market does not consider this “recommendation” a serious threat. Not yet.  Frankly, for someone who does support a ban of texting and in-hand use of cellphones while driving, today’s recommendation by the NTSB is a disappointment.  The proposal is too broad and sweeping for the public to support it. If this seemed to be a true threat then these stocks would have traded lower by a significant amount.  Just do not be surprised when some legislator in Washington D.C. decides to take this cause up next year.

The NTSB pre-conference fact sheet is here.

JON C. OGG

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