Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) was performing decently in 2016, up until about the past quarter, and since that time shares have dropped over 20%. This put the stock in the red for the year thus far. Unfortunately, these recent moves have brought somewhat unwanted attention from analysts. As a result, a couple of key analysts have not taken a liking to Southwest.
Argus lowered its rating for Southwest to Hold from Buy, based on concerns that earnings may be hurt as fuel costs rise. The company also will face higher costs related to the massive technology failure on July 20, which resulted in the delay or cancellation of thousands of flights.
Based on current bookings and yields, management expects revenue per available seat mile to decline 3% to 4% in the third quarter. Excluding fuel expense, profit-sharing costs and special items, it expects unit costs to increase 2% in the third quarter and 1% for the full year. The independent research firm lowered its 2016 earnings estimate to $4.24 per share from $4.32, and the 2017 estimate to $4.20 from $4.73. Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $3.91 and $4.05 per share for 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Argus further noted in its report that the stock has risen 73% since its upgrade in April 2014. However, the company recently missed the second-quarter consensus earnings forecast. On the positive side, management has taken steps to lower nonfuel operating costs and has been creative in generating additional sources of revenue. In addition, the balance sheet is clean, and the company has an impressive record of returning capital to shareholders. Argus would consider returning the stock to its Buy list on signs of an improved earnings outlook or a nonfundamental pullback to the $30 level.
Credit Suisse removed Southwest from its Focus List and lowered its price target to $48 from $54. The firm thinks the 11% move with the stock was overdone, but it attributes that to higher expectations and crowded positioning.
The brokerage firm detailed in its report:
However, we don’t get the sense investors are rushing in, and expect a rebound will take time as expectations are calibrated in a very messy industry pricing environment that seems to be changing weekly. The market shook off unit revenue guides for no Q/Q improvement from Delta and United given the accompanying cuts, but LUV’s guide for a Q/Q deterioration in core PRASM reveals just how challenging and volatile the current pricing environment is and begs the question of whether network carrier capacity cuts in Q4 will be meaningful enough to materially firm yields. At 9.3x our new 2017E of $4.00 (7% below Street) we see limited downside in shares from here and still subscribe to the long-term bull case and believe there should be more multiple support for LUV relative to network carriers given more durable earnings and better FCF support.
Shares of Southwest were trading down about 2% at $37.15 on Monday, with a consensus analyst price target of $49.54 and a 52-week trading range of $32.94 to $51.34.
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