It seems that Hurricane Debby barely finished making headlines before tropical storm Ernesto began making its own. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center, though its path would most likely not reach the continental U.S., veering north after reaching Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands towards Bermuda.
Still, many hurricanes during the Atlantic hurricane season reach the U.S., and some areas of the country are at far higher risk of being in a hurricane’s path than others.
To determine the counties with the highest hurricane risk, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on natural hazard risk for U.S. counties from the March 2023 FEMA National Risk Index dataset. Counties were ranked based on total hurricane risk as measured by FEMA, calculated as a product of total expected economic loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.. Supplemental data on the total value of all owner-occupied homes and population change due to net migration are from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Not surprising, all of the counties on the list with the highest hurricane risk are in eastern states, including 23 counties in Florida, seven in Texas, and five each in North and South Carolina. Louisiana, too, is represented with four counties. (Also see: Every $5 billion (plus) weather event since 2020.)
Why are we covering this
Scientists project that hurricanes will increase, if not in number, then in intensity due to global warming. This list provides a good idea of where the hurricane risk is greatest.
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $22.9 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +2.1%
County seat: Savannah
12. Collier County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.51/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $85.3 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +8.6%
County seat: East Naples
11. Horry County, SC
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.55/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $29.6 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +14.9%
County seat: Conway
10. Pasco County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.60/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $45.2 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +14.0%
County seat: Dade City
9. Charleston County, SC
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.64/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $61.5 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +2.9%
County seat: Charleston
8. Pinellas County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.69/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $106.9 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +2.3%
County seat: Clearwater
7. Brevard County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.73/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $63.1 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +8.1%
County seat: Titusville
6. Lee County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.78/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $86.2 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +10.5%
County seat: Fort Myers
5. Hillsborough County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.82/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $125.5 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +4.3%
County seat: Tampa
4. Palm Beach County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.87/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $220.5 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +3.3%
County seat: West Palm Beach
3. Broward County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.91/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $199.6 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +0.5%
County seat: Fort Lauderdale
2. Miami-Dade County, FL
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 99.96/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $255.6 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: -1.0%
County seat: Miami
1. Harris County, TX
FEMA hurricane risk index score: 100.00/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $306.2 billion
Population change due to net migration, 2017 to 2022: +0.1%
County seat: Houston
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