If you think you’re safe from earthquakes because you don’t live on the West Coast, think again. One of the most dangerous earthquake zones in the country is right in the heartland, and can trigger quakes you’ll feel a thousand miles away. If you don’t have earthquake insurance, you might want to look into it!

America Has Its Faults

Our country has its faults, literally and metaphorically. The biggest danger zones of the seismic variety are the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest, the San Andreas Fault in California, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone in Missouri.

The Cascadia Fault

The Cascadia Subduction Zone gets less press but has the most powerful earthquakes on the West Coast, with a possibility of 9 or more on the Richter scale. As the fault runs under the coastal area of Washington state and British Columbia, it presents a significant tsunami risk.

The San Andreas Fault

In Southern California, the infamous San Andreas Fault has a major earthquake every 150-200 years. It has been 168 years since the last one in 1857. Today over 10 million people live in Los Angeles County alone. There is a strong likelihood of another  major seismic event within the next 20-30 years.

The New Madrid Fault

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is named for a small Missouri town near its center. It runs from northern Arkansas through southeastern Missouri, western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southern Illinois. Little Rock, Nashville, Memphis, and St. Louis are the largest nearby cities that could experience significant damage from a major earthquake there. About 12 million people live in this region.

The 1811-12 New Madrid Earthquakes

In the winter of 1811-12, a series of earthquakes happened in the fault zone, the largest of which seismologists believe was between 7.2-8.2 on the Richter scale. Centered in northwest Arkansas, it produced intense effects over an area of about 50,000 square miles, equivalent in size to Tennessee, and moderate effects over 1 million square miles, a comparable area to all of the U.S. west of the Rockies.

Nearly 1,500 miles away in Montreal, buildings shook and alarmed residents. President James Madison felt the tremor in the White House. It caused church bells to ring in Boston and panicked citizens in New York.

Effects On the Mississippi River

The earthquake was powerful enough to change the course of the Mississippi River and create temporary waterfalls in it. About 15 miles south of the town of New Madrid, upheaval of the land caused the river to flow backwards for several hours. Reelfoot Lake, Tennessee was formed when the land subsided there. In its new course, the Mississippi permanently separated the westernmost part of Kentucky from the rest of the state in an area known as the Kentucky Bend.

Why Midwest Earthquakes Have a Long Reach

On the West Coast, rugged, fractured mountain chains absorb the seismic waves of coastal earthquakes so they don’t travel over such long distances. In the East, the underlying rock layers are older, made of sedimentary rocks, and not fractured as those in the West are. These characteristics allow seismic waves to travel over long distances. You can think of the central portion of the country as being like a big drum that reverberates across the whole area when struck in the center.

What is the Likelihood of Another New Madrid Earthquake?

Experts estimate there is a 25-50% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater occurring on the New Madrid Fault within the next 50 years. The chances of a magnitude 7.0 or higher are 10%. Across the Midwest today many people do purchase earthquake insurance for their homes as even a small temblor can crack foundations or cause other costly damage.

What Could a New Madrid Quake Do Today?

Studies by the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency and FEMA estimate that a 7.6 magnitude earthquake could kill and injure thousands of people and displace about 730,000 people from their homes. Damage estimates to the state of Missouri alone range from $230 million to $6 billion. 40% of small business in the affected area would not reopen and 25% of those that did would likely fail within a year.

Broader Regional Damage

Across the central United States highways and bridges would be damaged and in some places collapse. Some structures, especially older historic buildings, would become unstable and suffer shattered windows and masonry cracks. People far from the immediate areas would be injured by falling items in homes and offices. Gas and water mains in some areas would break, causing damage and injuries. The federal and state governments and private charities would have to organize evacuation and temporary housing for hundreds of thousands of people. Rivers might need to be dredged to clear navigation channels for commercial shipping. So the damage of such an event would be a national catastrophe, with loss of life, property, and revenue affecting a dozen or more states.

What Should Midwesterners Do?

The chances of a large earthquake in Missouri are significant, but not so large that you need to panic. Here are some reasonable steps to take if you live in the Midwest, though:

• Find out if your house has earthquake insurance. If not, contact your agent and see how much it is. It might just be a few dollars a year.
• Don’t put heavy pictures, shelves, or decorations on the wall above your bed. Lots of things could cause those to fall on you in the night. Why take a chance?
• You should already have some bottled water, batteries, canned food, and other emergency supplies on hand for tornados. You might need those in the supply chain disruptions after an earthquake as well.
• If you’re buying a house that is close to the seismic zone, you should look into the geologic surveys of the land in the area. Some house are built on soil that can behave like a liquid during an earthquake, amplifying the damage to structures on them.

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