Economy

This State Is Most Likely To Lose Congressmen

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: December 23, 2023 9:06 am

The total number of members of the House of Representatives was set at 435 in 1911. The figure moves up or down by state based on population. Every ten years, the Census releases the resident count by state. Based on the 2020 Census, each congressional district has about 775,000 residents.

The think tank Brennan Center for Justice recently released a study titled “How Congressional Maps Could Change in 2030.” It is based on a new Census data release–U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms as More States Gain Population. The Census information examines population migration trends.

Two states posted large declines in 2023, based on a mid-year count compared to the same period that ended mid-2022. California lost 75,423 residents. New York lost 101,984. The Brennan Center for Justice used this information to forecast the 2030 population by state.

The authors noted that population growth has swung sharply to the south and mountain states. One victim of this migration has been California. That reverses a major trend. The study’s authors commented that the number of members of the House of Representatives from California doubled from 1940 to 2010. These are the state where people are moving from California. 

The Brennan Center forecasts that California will lose four seats in 2030. That would move its total to 48. It would keep its place at the top of the list of states based on the total number of members of the House. Texas would close the gap. Based on the forecast, it would gain four seats, taking its total to 42 seats by the end of this decade.

States that used to have the most members of the House will shrink. “New York, meanwhile, would lose three seats, Illinois two, and Pennsylvania one, leaving all three states with congressional delegations half the size they were in 1940,” the research forecast.

Finally, the change in members of the House by state will eventually influence the power of each one in national elections. Electoral votes are based on the number of Congressional districts each state has plus its two Senators. These Senators are doing the least in office. The California political juggernaut has started to lose some of its power.