After the close of trading today will come earnings from two key players in technology and communications: Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) and Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM).  Traders and investors alike will be looking closely at each report and making sector determinations based upon each report individually.  We have provided basic Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and have added in color for each report today.

The caveats and wild card ahead is Japan and the recent turmoil throughout North Africa and the Middle East.  The disruption may have had a small impact on the last quarter but these both could create existing issues for the current quarter that is already underway.

Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) and Larry Ellison will be gracing us with earnings after the close.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.50 EPS and $8.67 billion in revenues for the last quarter and both estimates have been rounded up from just over the weekend.  Next quarter estimates are $0.66 EPS and $10.50 billion in revenues. 

At $31.83 this afternoon, the 52-week trading range for the enterprise software giant is $21.24 to $33.71.  Oracle has performed well and held up well in the market considering its size and considering the acquisitions it has made.  It also beat earnings last quarter handily and we feel investors are going to demand a repeat performance.

Many are going to pay close attention to currency fluctuations and to margins, but we plan to focus more on the competitive landscape.  We have already begun to decrease margin expectations ahead the more and more that Oracle gets into hardware.  How great can Sun Microsystems be at contributing to gross margins? 

Keep in mind that Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is not in most of the same space of enterprise spending, but traditionally it has been Oracle and Cisco that led investors to interpolate the enterprise spending climate on each other.  This may no longer be fair since Cisco has been dropping the ball. 

The ongoing fight between SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) for market share and then the new infighting with Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) will offer another degree of comparisons to be made.  

Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) also reports earnings after the close.  This one will be a distant number-2 behind Oracle as far as a broad market impact and even for a sector impact.  Still, we’ll be watching Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) for the ongoing war in smartphones. As a reminder, there is sometimes confusion between the “US Dollar” and the “Canadian Dollar” reports that hit the wire as R-I-M is actually a Canadian company rather than a U.S. company.

Thomson Reuters has estimates for R-I-M of $1.76 EPS and $5.64 billion in revenues, both of which have been rounded up just since this last weekend.  The company’s prior guidance was $5.5 to $5.7 billion in revenues and $1.74 to $1.80 EPS.  Next quarter estimates are $1.65 EPS and $5.64 billion in revenues. With RIM shares at $63.62, its 52-week range is $42.53 to $76.78.

We will of course be looking for just how the company’s touchscreen smartphones are being adopted by users as well as its total shipments and sell-through figures.  The biggest issue is exactly just how many PlayBook tablet PC units are going to be shipped and what its sales expectations are against Apple’s iPad and now the iPad2.  R-I-M was just another Apple competitor who was late to a market on that front and now it has to try to play catch-up. So far, the expectations are rather underwhelming.

Where R-I-M has managed to hang on to its space is in the international markets and enterprise markets. Still, Apple and Google have been more than a mere disruption even if Palm and its WebOS under Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) has all but dried up.  If R-I-M can show that it is holding its own in the enterprise smartphone market and can keep maintaining guidance ahead, Wall Street might have no choice but to reward the company.  That is still an IF but the stock trades at very close to a mere 10-times expected earnings.

Another issue to consider at least somewhat is that R-I-M has recently gone to a co-Chairman position on the board of directors.  This might not matter so much since both are internal.  If anything, it sets the company up better for when an ultimate regime change comes down the road.

JON C. OGG

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