Update: Apple earnings and an erosion of its global market share are set to push its stock down as much as 10% at the open. A drop of this magnitude would erase $50 billion in market cap. Apple sold only 51 million iPhones, below expectations. After earnings were released, research firm IDC reported that Apple’s global smartphone market share dropped sharply in 2013.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have presented more evidence that competition has staggered it as the publicly traded company released disappointing earnings. However, the smartphone market continues to surge, which may be Apple’s best hope of recovery. A rising tide continues to lift all ships, as global smartphone sales rose above one billion in 2013.

According to IDC:

The worldwide smartphone market reached yet another milestone, having shipped one billion units in a single year for the first time. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors shipped a total of 1,004.2 million smartphones worldwide, up 38.4% from the 725.3 million units in 2012.

The IDC data do, however show, that Apple continues to lose ground to Samsung, which itself recently posted poor earnings numbers. Samsung had 31.3% of the global smartphone market, followed by Apple at 15.3%. Apple’s problem is that its shipments only rose 12.9% last year from 2012. Samsung’s surged 42.9%.

The data also show that there is no real third place in the smartphone industry. No company beyond the top two has any more than 5%. share. Huawei, Lenovo, and LG barely have 14% of the entire sector among them. All that can be said in their favor is that each is growing rapidly, but from a pathetically small base.

The engines of growth were not revolutionary:

“Among the top trends driving smartphone growth are large screen devices and low cost,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Of the two, I have to say that low cost is the key difference maker. Cheap devices are not the attractive segment that normally grabs headlines, but IDC data shows this is the portion of the market that is driving volume. Markets like China and India are quickly moving toward a point where sub-$150 smartphones are the majority of shipments, bringing a solid computing experience to the hands of many.

Apple may have fumbled badly with the most recent versions of the iPhone. But, at least the market in which is competes is not contracting. On the contrary…

Top Five Smartphone Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, 2013 (Units in Millions) 

Vendor	2013 Shipment Volumes	2013 Market Share	2012 Shipment Volumes	2012 Market Share	Year-over-Year Change
Samsung	313.9	31.3%	219.7	30.3%	42.9%
Apple	153.4	15.3%	135.9	18.7%	12.9%
Huawei	48.8	4.9%	29.1	4.0%	67.5%
LG	47.7	4.8%	26.3	3.6%	81.1%
Lenovo	45.5	4.5%	23.7	3.3%	91.7%
Others	394.9	39.3%	290.5	40.1%	35.9%
Total	1,004.2	100.0%	725.3	100.0%	38.4%

Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, January 27, 2014

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