Microsoft Shares Up 43%: Can They Move Higher?

Apps & Software

Published: September 21, 2014 8:47 am

Last Updated: September 22, 2014 6:55 am

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) shares have risen 43% in the past year, compared to 21% for the Nasdaq. Will the market buy into its new CEO’s vision enough to keep the stock rising?

The best summary of new CEO Satya Nadella’s strategy is cloud and mobile ahead of all else. Although he will have to rely on wildly profitable Windows and Microsoft’s core business applications, the migration of these to the cloud may not do him much good. The user base of most of the products, led by the relatively new OneDrive, may not see much advantage to a cloud-based version of Windows versus one that runs on the PC. The basic functions of the two versions may not be visible enough to affect the behavior of the huge user base that fuels their sales. And there are more than several alternatives because of Google Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-powered products and the relentless adoption rate of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iOS, which is about to be upgraded.

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The second challenge to Microsoft’s cloud plans is that well-publicized data breaches may make both consumers and businesses shy away from cloud-based products. No matter how different the hack to Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Home Depot Inc. (NYSE HD) may be from cloud-based software, the public, relatively uneducated in how data is stored, is likely to become more wary of the cloud.

Mobile-first is an equally difficult strategy to implement. While some measures of the adoption of Windows on portable devices are encouraging, its presence is still eclipsed by that of Android and iOS.

Also, Microsoft’s new plans appear to have pushed it back from old, core products. At the very least they have been moved away from the stated goals of the company. First among these are Xbox and Bing. While Bing is constantly upgraded, its share of the search market remains modest.

The company’s description of itself looks as much backward as forward:

Founded in 1975, Microsoft (Nasdaq “MSFT”) is the worldwide leader in software, services, devices and solutions that help people and businesses realize their full potential.

Competing products mean that people may reach their “full potential” elsewhere.

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