Toyota: No More Easy Growth

The nice thing about the management at Toyota (TM) is that they tell their rivals ahead of time how badly they are going to crush them.

The big Japanese car company says it will sell 10.4 million vehicles in 2009. That would be up 18% from 2006, according to Reuters.

The company is even willing to say how they will get there. First, increased market share in developed markets like the US and Europe. And, then taking big chunks of fast-growing markets like India and China.

Reuters writes that "Toyota said it planned to sell 1 million cars in China in the early part of the next decade. But, so will almost every large car company. Added together, the projections of the world’s major car companies for China sales over the next decade and every man, woman, and child will have a car.

In India, several studies show that weak highway infrastructure will contain car sales, at leas until India’s road builder catch up.

Last year, half of Toyota’s cars were sold in the US and Japan. Those markets are not growing, and, with the amount of competition, Toyota may find that its next one or two percent market share comes much more slowly that the last few. Detroit is fighting for its life in the US and GM is doing particularly well in China.

In Japan, Toyota has to face Nissan and Honda (HMC). Neither is likely to give up the ghost.

India and China also have local car companies. And, the governments there may not let outsiders take damage these companies as has happened in the lassie fair.

The next million car sales are going to be much harder than Toyota may think.

Douglas A. McIntyre