For everything that has happened at Ford (F) over the last three months, Wall St. should expect some movement in the shares. But, they are flat. Barely a penny of movement.

The market is dealing with two counter-weights and it has not become clear which will drive the company over the next year.

Sales at Ford are awful, at least in the US. Unit volume has dropped each month for the last twelve months when compared to the same period a year ago. Sales in Asia and South America have been reasonable, and both regions posted strong operating income in the last quarter. Jaguar and Rover still drag on sales, but those units will probably be sold by early next year. But, Ford can’t afford much more of a slide in it home market.

On the other side of the coin is a highly successful cost cutting program. The new UAW contract takes health liabilities off of the P&L and allows the company to pay some classes of workers at fairly low hourly wage levels. The company has also cleaned out a large group of middle managers.

Ford trades at $8 now, which is pretty much the middle of its 52-week price range. US monthly sales reports for the next two or three months are going to push that share price hard, one way or the other.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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