Ford’s Falling Market Share

GM’s U.S. market share in September came in at 17.9%, up from 16.4% in September 2013. Ford’s share fell from 16.2% a year to 14.4%, and Chrysler’s share rose from 12.6% to 13.6%. In pickup trucks alone, Chrysler’s Ram boosted its market share from 8.7% a year ago to 10.4%. Ford’s F-Series pickups posted market share of 11.1% a year ago and have fallen to 10.1% this year.

For the month of September, the current version of the F-Series pickups sold 59,863 units, still nearly 9,000 more than the second best-selling Chevy Silverado from GM. And the Silverado is gaining market share while the F-150 is losing, down 1% year-over-year in September and down 0.4% year-to-date compared with 2013. The Silverado is up 54.4% in September and 5.9% year-to-date.

The third best-selling pickup made an even bigger noise. The Ram pickup from Chrysler sold 36,612 units in September, up 30.1% for the month and up 21.7% for the year-to-date.

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Pickups are not the only place Ford is losing. Sales of the Ford Escape SUV fell 3.9% in September and are up just 0.8% year-to-date. The CR-V from Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) gained 10.6% in September and is up 5.2% year-over-year. Toyota Motor Corp.’s (NYSE: TM) RAV4 posted a September gain of 42.7% and a year-to-date gain of 26.1%, the largest of any vehicle from any automaker.

Ford’s market share for cars has also dropped, from 5.1% in September 2013 to 4.3% this year. Both GM and Chrysler have also lost share in autos, but Ford is the only one of the three to lose share when cars and pickups are counted together.

Ford lives and dies on sales of its F-150 — and the sooner the new models hit the sales floor, the sooner the company has a chance to recover. Some industry analysts have raised questions about Ford’s ability to manufacture the aluminum-body pickups quickly and in quantity. Ford had better hope the doomsayers are wrong.

Ford’s stock closed at $14.59 on Friday, down nearly 15% over the past 12 months, and just above the low end of the 52-week range of $14.40 to $18.12.

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