Russia’s Auto Sales Debacle Getting Worse

For the 12 months of 2013, Russian consumers bought 2.78 million new vehicles, down 5% from 2.94 million in 2012. The Association of European Businesses in Russia maintained its prior forecast for total unit sales of 2.45 million for 2014 and auto research firm focus2move.com is estimating total unit sales of 2.41 million. Last month the analysts at focus2move.com also forecast that total 2015 sales would drop to 1.9 million units.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) has offered buyout packages to 500 of the 2,000 employees at its St. Petersburg plant as it reduces production from two shifts a day to just one. GM’s market share in Russia has declined from 9.4% in September 2013 to 6.6% this September. Sales of its Chevy brand fell nearly 50% and Opel sales were down about a third.

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At the end of September, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) said that losses in Russia will delay the company’s return to profitability in Europe. Taken together with a number of other warnings, Ford’s stock couldn’t stand the pressure and took a nosedive. Ford’s September market share in Russia came to just 2.7%, down from 3.3% a year ago. For the year to date, Ford’s sales in Russia are down 42%, far worse than GM’s decline of 26.7%.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) actually improved its market share in Russia, rising from a minuscule 0.5% last year to 0.7% in September 2014. Sales of the company’s Jeep brand are up 13.4%, but the numbers are very small: from 598 units a year ago to 678 units this year. Year to date, market share is up 21.4%, but again, on very small numbers.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is the fourth-largest brand group in the Russian market. Toyota gained 1.5 points in September to lift its share to 7.6, trailing a joint venture of Avtovaz-Renault-Nissan, which leads with 32.9%. Volkswagen is second with 10% share, and Hyundai is third with 7.8% share. Toyota’s Lexus brand saw sales improve by 34.1% in September, from 1,418 in September 2013 to 1,902 this year.

The Russian economy is much weaker than it was at the beginning of the year, and the country’s currency has also fallen. Interest rates are higher and the cost of capital has jumped as a result of sanctions against Russia. Because it is harder and more expensive to get a loan, consumers are buying used cars, and that also hurts new car sales.

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