Automakers will be announcing January U.S. new car and light truck sales on Tuesday morning and industry watchers are predicting sales at their highest levels since January 2006. Estimates range from 1.13 million units from WardsAuto, to 1.14 million units from Kelley Blue Book, to 1.155 million units from Edmunds.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) estimates range from 16.4 million units to 16.7 million. The relatively mild winter weather combined with lower pump prices for gasoline have provided a boost to sales of light trucks and SUVs, with the smaller models seeing the best sales.
Compared with December 2014, however, sales are expected to be down 23% to 24% primarily as a result of a burst of sales at the end of December that was attributed to milder winter weather.
General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is forecast to sell 203,000 units for a market share of 18.0% in January (WardsAuto). The forecast from Edmunds calls for slightly more than 200,000 units and and a 17.3% share. Kelley Blue Book estimates 205,000 units sold for an 18.0% share. Sales are projected to rise about 14% year-over-year in the month.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to sell more than 180,000 units for a 15.6% share (Edmunds). The forecast from WardsAuto is somewhat lower, with unit sales of 170,000 and 15.0% share. Analysts at Kelley Blue Book project sales of 172,000 for a market share of 15.1%. Ford is expected to return to second-place in the market share wars.
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Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) are forecast to sell about 144,000 units and nab 12.5% share (Edmunds). Kelley Blue Book expects sales of 145,000 units for a 12.7% share, and WardsAuto is looking for sales of 140,000 units for a 12.4% share. That’ i a 6.2% gain compared with January 2014.
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to hold onto about 14.5% of the U.S. market with sales of 163,000 units (WardsAuto). Edmunds projects sales of 168,000 units for a 14.5% share, and Kelley Blue Book has pegged Toyota sales at 145,000 units. Sales are essentially flat with January 2014.
Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to sell 102,000 units for a 9.0% market share, according to WardsAuto. That would drop Honda behind Nissan, again based on projections from WardsAuto, to sixth place in U.S. market share, compared with Nissan’s sales of 104,000 for a 9.2% share. Both Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book project that Honda will retain its fifth-place ranking with sales of 104,000 and 102,000 units, compared with around 100,000 for Nissan.
Volkswagen AG is forecast to sell 38,000 units for a market share of 3.3% (Edmunds). Kelley Blue Book pegs VW’s January U.S. sales at 40,000 units for a 3.5% share. That is growth of 9.0% to 12.4% for the German automaker in unit sales, but a drop of about 0.1% in market share.
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