Banking, finance, and taxes

Big Banks a Crowded Trade: Baird Says Only 5 to Buy

When everybody seems to be in the same stocks on Wall Street, that is referred to as a “crowded” trade. With the emphasis on crowded, the big money center banks have attracted not only lots of Wall Street coverage, but also a slew of Buy ratings and upgrades. The question for investors looking to add solid financials to a portfolio is which of the top bank stocks are the ones to buy now. A new research note from Baird points out that investors have largely discounted the benefits from stabilizing trading revenue and the positive bias to forward estimates.

In addition, with loan growth still at a snail’s pace, the analysts at Baird are fans of the bank sector, but caution against the hope of any big pops on third-quarter earnings reports. Here are the five bank stocks rated Overweight at Baird.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), like most of the top money center banks, is expected to benefit from commercial loan growth and an upturn in capital spending. The Baird team does caution that litigation charges may prove to be more of a recurring expense. Financial regulatory reforms, legal costs and Basel II could temper capital standards and could permanently depress returns and the bank’s profitability. However, they see very good long-term value in the stock. Trading at a discount to the other large cap banks on 2015 earnings estimates does help upside potential.

J.P. Morgan investors are paid a respectable 2.7% dividend. The Baird price target on the stock is $67, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target is $67.55. The stock closed Wednesday at $60.40 a share.

ALSO READ: Deutsche Bank’s Top Stocks to Buy Now for This Quarter and 2015

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is another solid financial name on the Baird list that really may see a benefit if yields start moving higher. The yield curve typically steepens in an improving economy, which many on Wall Street currently anticipate in 2015. Wells Fargo has slowly but surely become one of the biggest mortgage lending companies in the United States, in addition to its normal banking and brokerage businesses. An increase in commercial real estate lending could really boost the bank’s bottom line. It also remains a top Warren Buffett holding.

Investors in Wells Fargo are paid a 2.7% dividend. The Baird price target is $55, and the consensus target is $55.01. Shares closed Wednesday at $52.15.

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) is a popular stock with many of the Wall Street firms we cover, and it is rated Outperform at Baird. The bank had $205.9 billion in deposits and $298.3 billion in total assets as of June 30, 2014. Capital One offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through a variety of channels. It also offers terrific commercials that drive brand recognition.

Investors are paid a 1.45% dividend. The Baird price target is $90, but the consensus target is set at $92.59. The stock closed Wednesday at $82.76.

ALSO READ: 9 High-Yield Dividends for Risk Takers

Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) is a top regional banking stock that makes the grade at Baird. The company announced this summer an 8.3% hike in its quarterly dividend, and it has repurchased 8 million shares of stock this year. The bank also recently announced the formation of the Payments and Commerce Solutions division. The new division combines existing businesses such as Treasury Management, Commercial and Consumer Card and Currency Processing Solutions with resources specialized in developing innovative commerce-enabled solutions.

Investors are paid a 2.6% dividend. While the Baird price target is $23, and the consensus figure is slightly higher at $23.78. The stock closed at $20.10 a share.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC) is one of the largest U.S. diversified financial services organizations, providing retail and business banking; residential mortgage banking; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management; and asset management. The company recently released solid Tier 1 stress test results and remains a top super-regional for investors.

PNC shareholders are paid a 2.3% dividend. The Baird price target is $90, and the consensus target is $94.05. The stock ended trading on Wednesday at $84.83.

ALSO READ: Credit Suisse’s Specialty Finance Stocks to Buy With Strong Upside Potential

The market is tempting everyone to sell, despite Wednesday’s huge reversal rally. The best idea now may be to rotate to underperforming sectors that have top stocks with upside. These solid financials that provide growth and income may make very good sense for the rest of the year and into 2015.

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