What to Expect From Citigroup Earnings

Citi posted EPS of $1.51 in the first quarter, an upside surprise of 8.6%. Whether that was due to good performance or lowered expectations is arguable — the bank had missed expectations for three consecutive quarters before that. The issue, then, is did last quarter mark a turnaround or was it an anomaly? The answer probably lies in whether the consumer banking segment can make up for shrinking trading and investment segments. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 9.54, and the price-to-book ratio is 0.84.

The stock may offer investors outstanding upside, and recent currency settlements were fully reserved for by the bank. Citigroup is very cheap. The nation’s fourth-largest bank by assets saw its first-quarter earnings jump from a year earlier.

Numerous Wall Street analysts cite the fact that Citigroup will be a leader in buyback payouts to shareholders. Combined with the bank’s strong domestic and international business, and a better overall economy, plus the headline risk over bank stress tests and settlements has been removed, share purchases look wise here.

The Deutsche Bank analysts feel the stock has shown good momentum, with numerous positive announcements, and they think near-term EPS should be solid. They do mention that estimates for the second half of this year and into 2016 may be too high, but that seems priced into the stock.

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In the first quarter, Citi increased its Basel III Tier 1 common equity ratio from 10.5% to 11.0%. Its estimated Basel III supplementary leverage ratio rose from 5.7% to 6.4%. The bank also raised its tangible book value per share 2% to $57.66.

Analysts recently weighed in on Citi ahead of its earnings report:

• Deutsche Bank reiterated a Neutral rating.
• Sterne Agee CRT reiterated a Neutral rating.
• Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating with a $65 price target.

Shares of Citigroup were up 1.3% at $56.66 Wednesday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $63.64 and a 52-week trading range of $46.60 to $57.64.