Will Shareholders Trust AmEx Earnings Growth Targets out to 2017?

Now the question to ask is whether American Express reaffirming guidance out to 2017 will entice new shareholders. Jeffrey Campbell, AmEx’s chief financial officer, was presenting data at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Friday. Campbell reaffirmed the longer-term financial outlook for the years 2015 through 2017 — to return to positive earnings per share growth in 2016 and within AmEx’s target range of 12% to 15% in 2017.

A couple of caveats are in order. First is that the near-term views come with downside risks with potentially slower growth in billings and revenues.

On an adjusted basis, the 2014 results were $5.39 in earnings per share (EPS). The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates ahead are $5.49 EPS in 2015 and $5.72 EPS in 2016. That is on an expected 1.2% decline in 2015 revenues (to $33.2 billion) and only a 0.5% revenue gain in 2016 (to $33.3 billion).

After a 0.9% drop to $76.38 on Friday morning, American Express shares have a consensus analyst price target of $85.40 and a 52-week trading range of $71.71 to $94.89. At the start of 2015, the consensus analyst price target for AmEx was $98.71, after closing out 2014 at $93.04, without adjusting for dividends paid.

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The other thing we have to consider is what the company’s own admitted risks are to achieving that 2017 guidance. These “risks and cautionary notes” in the outlooks of course throw in everything but the kitchen sink. Still, after removing the usual risks that every company sees, 24/7 Wall St. highlighted the following that are specific to AmEx:

• Growing the company’s share of overall spending
• Addressing the loss of the Costco U.S. relationship
• Retaining and growing its other cobrand and other partner relationships
• Increasing merchant coverage
• Enhancing its loyalty coalition offerings
• Expanding the GNS (global network services) business and controlling expenses

Campbell’s formal commentary said:

For the full year, our 2015 EPS outlook remains unchanged, as we continue to expect EPS to be flat to modestly down. We also believe our outlook to return to positive earnings per share growth in 2016 and within our target range of 12-15% in 2017 remains appropriate. As you recall, this outlook does not contemplate the impact of any restructuring charges or other contingencies.

We will likely have more unevenness in our performance from quarter to quarter than has been typical of our business.

We believe that our core underlying earnings performance this quarter will be generally consistent with the financial outlook framework that we first shared with you at our Investor Day in March. Although after adjusting for FX, we do expect the billings growth rate this quarter to be in line with or modestly below what we saw in the second quarter. In addition, we expect revenue growth this quarter to be slower than the second quarter revenue growth rate, adjusting for FX and business travel.

As we have noted on many occasions, we have confidence in the flexibility of our business model, as demonstrated by our results the last few years, which gives us the ability to use different levers — revenue growth, operating expense leverage, and use of our capital strength and share repurchases — to drive our financial performance.

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As far as why Buffett does not really care about the price of American Express today, that is simple. His stake dates back as far as the 1980s, so his cost basis is dirt cheap on a dividend-adjusted basis. This may be one of Berkshire Hathaway’s top 20 holdings (and one of the top five), but Buffett would cringe over the capital gains tax bill that Berkshire Hathaway would have to pay if he decided to liquidate that 151 million share stake.