Goldman Sachs Down 11%, Worst Performing Dow Stock of 2016

For the year to date, shares in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) trade down 11% and are the worst performer among the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Avenue. The financial sector as a group is down 6.64% year over year, as of Friday’s close.

When the Federal Reserve in December raised its policy interest rate from a range of 0.00% to 0.25% to a new range of $0.25% to 0.50%, the move was viewed as positive for banks. Higher rates typically mean more banking revenues.

But stuff like Brexit happens, and what had begun as a good year for banks didn’t quite live up to the advance billing. Goldman, of course, is primarily an investment bank and while interest rates matter, they contribute only about 1% of the bank’s revenues. Investment management services, institutional client services and traditional investment banking services are what drive the other 99% of revenues.

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Investment banking fees for the entire industry rose 11.5% sequentially in the second quarter of 2016, but remain 18% below last year’s take. A longer-term concern about Goldman revolves around the after-effects of the Brexit vote. Goldman and JPMorgan face the largest risks from Brexit due to their large U.K.-based operations.

Investment banking has shown barely a pulse this year. The number of U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) is down by 58% compared with a year ago, and the dollar value of those IPOs is down by 57%, according to IPO ETF manager Renaissance Capital.

On December 31, 2015, Goldman’s shares closed at $180.23. On Friday the shares closed at $160.41, down 0.1% for the day and down about 1.8% for the week. The stock’s 52-week range is $138.20 to $208.13, and the consensus price target is $181.00. The high target is $222 and the low is $120.

Goldman is currently the third most heavily weighted stock among the Dow 30, at 5.92%. It has ceded its top weighting to 3M, which now carries a Dow weighting of 6.67%, earlier this year and now also trails IBM’s 5.93% weighting.

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