When an Analyst Treats Citigroup the Same as J.P. Morgan

Banking, finance, and taxes

Published: April 3, 2014 10:20 am

Not all banks are created equally, and not all Wall Street analysts are treating each bank the same. Oppenheimer is treating most of the major money-center banks as though they are all created equally. The top banking index was up almost 5%, versus about 2% for the S&P 500 Index. What Oppenheimer’s thesis happens to be is that the firm’s Chris Kotowski expects that the stage is set for banks to continue their so-called stealth outperformance.

While there is an admission that there are no dramatic calls or bold forecasts, Kotowski is positive on the sector as a whole with higher price targets — even with some slightly lower earnings. What stood out the most was that even Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) commanded a higher price target.

The Oppenheimer call is that banks will outperform the broad market by a few hundred basis points per year. Kotowski said:

While loan growth remains sluggish, we expect that there is enough juice left in credit costs and expense savings to eke out a modestly positive comparison in 1Q14, even with yet another dreadful comparison on the treading front.

His favorite banking stocks out of the broader financial market stocks are Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Citi’s price target was raised to $66 from $63 in the call, and J.P. Morgan’s price target was raised to $75 from $72. Citigroup’s earnings estimates were changed to $4.92 per share this year (from $5.01) and next year’s estimates were kept unchanged at $5.73 per share. J.P. Morgan’s earnings estimates were moved to $6.13 per share (from $6.27) for this year and moved to $6.45 per share (from $6.61) for next year.

Also note that Citigroup was one of the few banks to have its proposed capital plans rejected by the Federal Reserve in the latest round of stress tests. It saw many analyst downgrades after that, including at least one all the way down to Sell.

This analyst call from Thursday may not sound like the most game-changing analyst call, but with all of Citi’s woes of late it is unusual to see an analyst give it the same treatment as the top banks.

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