UBS Says Top Global Banks to Buy Now All in the US

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By Lee Jackson Published
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Despite a flood of money heading to Europe, and many analysts becoming more bullish on the emerging markets, the reality is, much of the big money in the eurozone may have been already made, especially when it come to the top banks. In a new research report, the UBS global banking team have clear favorites when looking around the globe for the top banks to buy, and the three that they favor the most all reside in the United States.

With overall sentiment appearing to be on the upswing, the UBS team has focused on data from the bank’s second-quarter survey that indicates loan growth expectations have improved, especially in the developed markets. While earnings risks are somewhat skewed to the upside, the survey respondents feel that overall valuations are reasonable.

The three banks that the UBS team recommends now are Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB).

Citigroup

Trading at just 9.7 times estimated 2015 earnings, Citigroup is very cheap. The stock got hit hard after missing first-quarter earnings estimates, and may be perfect large cap stock to buy for a rebound. Many on Wall Street were also thinking there was a reasonably good chance that the bank would not past the recent Federal Reserve stress tests, which it did in fine fashion.

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While the stock has bounced sharply off the lows printed in early February, it still looks like a compelling buy here, especially with a dividend increase in the mix and a recent dip in the price.

Numerous Wall Street analysts cite the fact that Citigroup will be a leader in buyback payouts to shareholders. Combined with the bank’s strong domestic and international business, and a better overall economy, plus the headline stress test risk removed, share purchases look wise here.

Citigroup shareholders are currently paid a minuscule 0.1% dividend, which will increase. The UBS price target for the stock is $64, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is lower at $61.58. Shares ended last week at $51.86.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is one of the white glove Wall Street firms that continues to show tremendous growth, and it is running neck and neck with Goldman Sachs as the bank of choice for high-profile initial public offerings. Trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.72, that seems extremely reasonable, given the 2015 expectations for earnings per share growth of more than 20%. It also has 539 billion in cash equivalents on its balance sheet, versus $288 billion in total debt.

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Morgan Stanley says it will raise its dividend to 15 cents and buy back up to $3.1 billion in stock after the Federal Reserve System signed off on the company’s plan in the first quarter. It plans to buy back the stock over five quarters, starting in the second quarter of 2015. The company had paid a quarterly dividend of 10 cents.

Morgan Stanley investors are paid a 1.1% dividend. The UBS price target is $39, and the consensus price objective is posted at $38.86. Shares closed Thursday’s trading at $36.06.

Fifth Third Bancorp

This top regional banking stock makes the grade at UBS. It operates four main businesses: Commercial Banking, Branch Banking, Consumer Lending and Investment Advisors. Fifth Third also has a 22.8% interest in Vantiv Holding.

Fifth Third is among the largest money managers in the Midwest and, as of December 31, 2014, had $308 billion in assets under care, of which it managed $27 billion for individuals, corporations and not-for-profit organizations. At that time, the bank itself also had $139 billion in assets and operated 15 affiliates with 1,302 full-service banking centers, including 101 Bank Mart locations, most open seven days a week, inside select grocery stores and 2,638 ATMs in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina.

Fifth Third investors are paid a very solid 2.7% dividend. The UBS price target is $21, right in line with the consensus figure of $21.26. The stock closed most recently at $18.98 a share.

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The UBS team gives three distinctive offerings for investors, ranging from a global giant to a super-regional bank. All these stocks would make good sense for growth-oriented portfolios.

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About the Author Lee Jackson →

Lee Jackson has covered Wall Street analysts' equity and debt research and equity strategy daily for 24/7 Wall St. since 2012. His broad and diverse career, which included a stint as the creative services director at the NBC affiliate in Austin, Texas, gives him unique insight into the financial industry and world.

Lee Jackson's journey in the financial industry spans over 30 years, with nearly two decades as an institutional equity salesperson at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley. His career was marked by his presence on the sell side during pivotal Wall Street events, from the dot.com rise and bubble to the Long Term Capital Management debacle, 9/11, and the Great Recession of 2008. This is a testament to his resilience and adaptability in the face of market volatility.

Lee Jackson’s practical financial industry experience, acquired from a career at some of the biggest banks and brokerage firms, is complemented by a lifetime of writing on various platforms. This unique combination allows him to shed light on the intricacies and workings of Wall Street in a way that only someone with deep insider experience and knowledge can. Moreover, his extensive network across Wall Street continues to provide direct access for him and 24/7 Wall St., a privilege few firms enjoy.

Since 2012, Jackson’s work for 24/7 Wall St. has been featured in Barron’s, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Business Insider, TradingView, Real Money, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, and other media outlets. He attended the prestigious Cranbrook Schools in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, and has a degree in broadcasting from the Specs Howard School of Media Arts.

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