October New Car Sales Forecast Rises to Five-Year High (GM, F, TM, HMC)

In 2011, new car and light truck sales in the United States came in at about 13 million units sold. According to TrueCar.com, forecast sales for October put new light vehicle sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.9 million units sold, an increase of 14.6% over 2011 sales. October’s seasonally adjusted rate is the best in five years.

According to TrueCar.com’s forecast, 1.14 million new vehicles will be sold in October, up 11.5% from a year ago and down 4.2% (unadjusted) month-over-month. Seven of the eight automakers included in the survey are expected to post lower sales than in October than they did in September, with only Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) ekeing out a 1.1% gain. Month-over-month, Chrysler sales are forecast to drop 7.4%, Nissan sales are expected to fall 6.3%, Hyundai/Kia sales will slide 5.3%, Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) is expected to see sales fall 4.9%, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) sales are expected to decline 4.6%, Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to see sales fall 4.4%, and Volkswagen sales are forecast to be down 1.6%.

For the year-over-year comparison, however, sales are up at every manufacturer, with GM leading the way at 18.3% followed by Ford at 16.4%

According to a TrueCar.com analyst:

New car sales are on automatic pilot. October was a robust start to Q4 sales with most manufacturers posting double digit gains while continuing to lower incentives spending. We expect this recovery momentum to continue into the next year, with 2013 sales reaching 15.5 million units.

Used car sales are down 8.3% month-over-month and up 10.8% year-over-year in October. TrueCar.com estimates that about 3.22 million used cars will be sold in October, down from about 3.5 million in September.

Paul Ausick