As the share price of Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reached an all-time high of $199, its market capitalization hit almost $25 billion. That is about half of General Motors Co.’s (NYSE: GM), which is $50.2 billion.
GM made $5.35 billion in its most recently reported quarter on revenue of $40.5 billion. It battles Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) most years for the lead in global cars sales, which stands at nearly 10 million vehicles a year. Tesla recently announced its fourth quarter sales would be 20% higher than forecast, as it sold 6,900 cars during the period. The forecast means sales should be over $600 million. If the past is any indication, Tesla will do no better than making a tiny amount of money.
Advocates of Tesla’s value usually point to the same few things. The first is that battery-powered cars are the future of the auto industry and that gasoline-powered cars are obsolete. The second is that, at its current rate of growth and expansion into markets like China, it will soon sell 100,000 cars a year. Another point in Tesla’s favor is that it will introduce a car that costs half of the $70,000 it charges for its Tesla Model S. Perhaps, in time, Tesla will sell half as many cars as GM — or around five million a year.
The arguments against GM’s future also fall into a few categories. First among these is that it will never solve its sales problems in Europe, where it has lost billions of dollars over the past decade. GM has not come up with a plan that offers even a remote chance for that to change. However, GM currently competes with Volkswagen for the top spot in China, which is by far the world’s largest car market, and it has the largest share of the U.S. market at about 18%. GM’s growth may be modest, but chances are it will make $5 billion to $10 billion a year in the near-term future.
And GM does have the chance to make a car that competes with Tesla. So do Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Toyota, as well as most of the world’s largest global manufacturers. Each has the R&D budget to press into the “all-electric” car sector. Each has an incentive to offer a “Tesla alternative” before the revolutionary company becomes too large.
Tesla may be worth half of what GM is. But the case for that is not without fair criticism, at least for the time being.
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