Morgan Stanley car analyst Adam Jonas recently cut his forecast for Tesla sales for 2020 by 40% to 300,000. The date is so far away, that many people believe the estimate does not matter. However, it spooked some investors who believe Tesla will be a mainstream car company by then.
The price of Tesla’s shares is down 8% in the past month to about $228. That is after a run that took shares up 90% from the start of the year through Labor Day. At its peak, Tesla’s market cap was over $35 billion, compared to General Motors Co.’s (NYSE: GM) $54 billion. GM will sell more than 8 million cars worldwide this year.
The short interest in Tesla rose 861,000 to 23.4 million shares in the period that ended December 15. That is 25% of the total float of Tesla shares. For GM, the short interest is 2.3% of the float. Some investors have made a large bet that Tesla shares will fall.
The evolving view of Tesla is not only driven by absolute unit sales. There is rising anxiety that the world’s largest car companies will become its direct competitors. For example, BMW recently launched its i3, which retails for just over $41,000. That is a price point Tesla said it plans to compete at sometime in the next several years. Tesla may find the market for cheaper electric cars is already crowded. Also, BMW will launch a high-end electric car. Its i8 will sell for $135,000, but with the acceleration and amenities of the Tesla Model X, which will launch early next year.
Whatever caused the glow that surrounded Tesla, it has begun to fade. Many investors no longer believe that the trajectory of its shares will be straight up.
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