February New Car Sales Forecast: GM, VW Losing Market Share

Cars and Drivers

Published: March 1, 2015 8:34 am

Last Updated: April 27, 2020 9:13 pm

February was a good month for new car sales in the United States. A total of around 1.29 million new cars were sold during the month, which pencils out to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of around 16.6 million sales. Automakers are set report sales figures on Tuesday.

Sales improved more than 10% month-over-month and about 8% year-over-year. Kelley Blue Book (KBB) estimates new light vehicle sales at 1.286 million units, up 11.9% from January and 8.0% over February 2014. Edmunds expects a month-over-month increase of 11.8% and a 7.9% increase year-over-year. WardsAuto is looking for total sales of 1.29 million units, up 8.8% year-over-year and up 22.2% month-over-month on a daily sales rate basis.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is forecast to sell 239,000 units for a market share of 18.5% in February (WardsAuto). The forecast from Edmunds calls for slightly more than 230,000 units and a 17.9% share. Kelley Blue Book estimates 235,000 units sold for an 18.3% share. Both KBB and Edmunds have GM losing market share, down 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, compared with February 2014.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to sell nearly 193,000 units for a 15.0% share (Edmunds). The forecast from WardsAuto is somewhat higher, with unit sales of 196,000 and 15.1% share. Analysts at Kelley Blue Book project sales of 195,000 for a market share of 15.2%. Ford is expected remain in second place in the market share battle.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to hold onto about 13.6% of the U.S. market with sales of 176,000 units (WardsAuto). Edmunds projects sales of around 185,000 units for a 16.0% share, and Kelley Blue Book has pegged Toyota sales at 180,000 units and a 14.0% share. KBB attributes Toyota’s year-over-year improvement to higher sales of its Corolla and Camry models, partly due to rising gasoline prices.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) are forecast to sell about 167,000 units and nab 13.0% share (Edmunds). Kelley Blue Book expects sales of 168,000 units for a 13.1% share, and WardsAuto is looking for sales of 173,000 units for a 13.4% share. WardsAuto notes that if Chrysler meets its projections, the automaker would post its highest market share since September.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to sell 112,000 units, less than the total of 126,000 units forecast for Nissan, according to WardsAuto. That would keep Honda behind Nissan for the second consecutive month. Both Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book project that Honda will retain its fifth place ranking with sales of 112,000 and 113,000 units, respectively, compared with more than 120,000 for Nissan.

Volkswagen is forecast to sell about 37,000 units for a market share of 2.9% (Edmunds). Kelley Blue Book pegs VW’s February U.S. sales at 42,000 units for a 3.3% share. Year over year, VW sales are either up 1.9% (KBB) or down 2.2% (WardsAuto). In either case, VW loses 0.2% or 0.3% of market share.

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