March New Car Sales Forecasts at Record Levels

Total new car sales for the month of March are expected to reach 1.66 million units, the highest March total since 2000 and the sixth highest total for any month since at least 1989. Volume is forecast to be around 7% above the March 2015 total.

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, March is expected to post a total in the range of 17.20 to 17.30 million, down from the February SAAR of 17.53 million, but up from 17.13 million in March of 2015. If the SAAR should remain above 17 million, March would become the 11th consecutive month above that level, and new car deliveries would total more than 4.15 million units, according to a report at Automotive News, the highest first-quarter total since 2000.

TrueCar has projected March retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks of 1.345 million units, up 7.7% compared with March 2015. Analysts at TrueCar estimate that Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) will post the largest year-over-year gain at 19%. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) is on track to post a gain of 13.7%, and Nissan could show a gain of 9.9% for the month.

Stacey Doyle, senior industry analyst at TrueCar, said:

Small crossovers continue to make a big splash in the market, but the small car segment hasn’t been forgotten. The all-new Honda Civic is a hot product that has been well received by consumers, and as a result we expect Honda to see the highest retail sales growth this month.

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TrueCar also projects average incentive spending by carmakers at $3,005 per vehicle in March, a rise of 10.4% year over year and down 0.9% compared with February.

Analysts at Edmunds.com expect Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) to post a month-over-month gain of 18.6% and a year-over-year increase of 9.1%. Ford is expected to sell 256,194 units in March and post a market share of 15.5%, compared with 15.2% in March of 2015.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is expected to post a sales gain of 11.6% month over month and 1.8% year over year, selling 254,319 units in March. GM’s market share for March will slip from 16.2% a year ago to 15.4%.

Edmunds.com forecasts Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) sales to rise 28% month over month in March and 6.5% year over year. Toyota’s market share in March is expected to tick down from 14.6% a year ago to 14.5%.