From Ticker Sense
ln mid-December we highlighted what the consensus commodity price forecasts for 2007 were from commodities analysts. Gold and oil were two of only three commodities that analysts expected to rise in 2007 from their December prices. In the charts below, we highlight how correct those forecasts have been and where the forecasts currently stand.
In each chart, the line on the left represents the actual price while the line on the right represents the 2007 year-end average price forecast. The light blue dots represent where the price was in mid-December and the dark blue dots represent where the price is currently.
As shown in the gold chart, the price has gone up quite a bit this year already, which is what analysts were expecting. Interestingly, however, price forecasts have come down some even though the price has risen. Analysts were expecting oil to rise to about $64 per barrel by the end of ’07 in mid-December, but as the commodity has fallen to current levels, the forecasts have followed suit, and now are just over $60.
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