Mosaic Boosts Share Buybacks to Offset Weak Earnings

For the full year, Mosaic posted EPS of $2.49 on sales of $9 billion, compared with 2012 EPS of $4.34 on revenues of $10 billion. The consensus EPS estimate was $2.89 on revenues of $9.63 billion.

Like so many other companies that miss estimates by a mile, Mosaic said it has authorized a $1 billion share buyback program as an addition to its previous agreement to buy back 43.3 million shares in the first seven months of this year.

The company’s potash sales for the fourth quarter totaled 1.9 million metric tons (tonnes), the high end of the company’s expectations. The average selling price in the quarter was $303 per tonne, near the top of the estimated range of $285 to $310 per tonne. Production reached 65% of capacity, slightly higher than anticipated.

In the company’s phosphates segment, sales totaled 3.4 million tonnes, well above the forecast of 2.5 million to 2.9 million tonnes, and the average realized price was $381 per tonne, at the lower end of the expected range of $370 to $400 per tonne.

For the first quarter of 2014 Mosaic expects to sell 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes of phosphates, down slightly from the year-ago first quarter total of 2.7 million tonnes. The company forecasts an average selling price of $390 to $400 per tonne.

Sales volumes for potash are expected to be in a range of 2.3 million to 2.7 million tonnes in the first quarter, up from 2 million tonnes in the year ago quarter. The average sales price is expected to fall in the range of $245 to $275 per tonne.

The company’s CEO said:

While our results for the fourth quarter reflect the low market prices for potash and phosphates, current market conditions are improving. Market dynamics are unfolding as we expected they would, with sales volumes increasing before prices; in fact, we shipped a record volume of phosphates during the quarter, and potash volumes increased significantly.

Shares closed Monday at $46.82 and were inactive in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock’s 52-week range is $39.75 to $64.65. FactSet had a consensus analyst price target of around $48.00 before these results were announced.